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Dollar faces broad-based squeeze
Yesterday the focus may have been very much on Sterling, but Tuesday is being dominated by the run of dollar weakness that has been posted over the last few hours. The DXY dollar index is toying with a break below 101 driven by a range of factors including questions over some of Trump’s proposed policies and an expectation that a more interventionist policy will be needed by the Fed to make the greenback more competitive. This has given cable some relief with GBP/USD managing to retake the 1.2100 level – at least temporarily.

EUR/GBP has also seen a modest retreat from the highs that greeted us when Asian markets resumed the week’s trading, pushing back below 0.8800. The key point to watch here is Theresa May’s speech scheduled for 11.45am GMT, although as has been said previously, this is only half the story. Until we have the Supreme Court ruling, anything else is as much a reaction to the uncertainty as it is to the short term hit the UK economy will feel in a post-Brexit world. We also have UK CPI for December due at 9.30am GMT and this will be worth watching as anything hotter than the 1.4% we have forecast will have implications over the next steps for the Bank of England’s monetary policy. 

USD/JPY is continuing to track its way lower, with the Yen being seen as having some real potential as a safe haven, depending how affairs in the UK and US map out in the coming weeks. Better than expected economic releases in the last few hours have also helped, whilst traders have been buying the Yen from knock-down prices, too – the pair rallied by 15% in the wake of Trump winning the election. Scheduled US economic data is relatively thin on the ground today, although again we do have two FOMC members speaking and any clues over whether the incoming administration is reacting to the recent run of dollar strength will certainly be worth following.
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