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Banks Increase Uncertainty of British Pound, Expected Hike in USD affects other majors
There has been another round of scaremongering in the UK media over the weekend with regard to the potential implications of Brexit. This time it was claimed – by the British Bankers Association - that a number of smaller banks were already retreating from London, with bigger players set to follow in the new year. The pound is looking a touch unsettled in early trade but there’s doubt in the veracity of these claims, which are well timed ahead of the Autumn budget statement from the UK government, and it comes against a backdrop of US dollar strength, too.
The idea that we’ll see a US rate hike in the short term continues to reinforce the greenback, with EUR/USD now trading around the February lows. We do have some PMI indicators from the trading bloc this morning which could provide a little fresh direction, but given the ECB’s stance at last week’s meeting the top line is that with no change in tack over monetary policy, the Euro seems likely to remain on the back foot for this pair.
Japan has produced a run of better than expected economic data overnight with manufacturing PMI and trade balance data both serving to impress, although against a backdrop of talk surrounding US rate hikes, USD/JPY has been essentially flat over the last few hours. With the greenback looking so dominant right now, further USD gains may be seen on this pair unless we get any clues that the planned Fed rate hike will be tipped into the New Year. That said, this seems highly unlikely and unless there’s a major shock, consensus is building that the December move is no longer being considered as a live event – it’s going to happen regardless.
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