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FCA & CySEC
The best chance of a pop higher here would be an inflation-rousing non-farm payrolls print this afternoon as by all accounts the most obvious big unknown factor going into 2017 is going to be the pace of US rate hikes – we’re confident that a quarter point will be added this month, but how feisty will inflation be in the New Year. With two FOMC members speaking later in the day, any hints here may well give something meaningful to trade.
Sterling crosses started the month with a punch higher after the EU hinted that a soft Brexit may be on the table. The pound did give back most of the gains over the common currency – EUR/GBP traded as low as 0.8375 before returning to 0.8450 – but there’s been some more lasting support over the greenback with 1.2600 seemingly looking safe for now. UK PMI data yesterday fell short of expectations so the construction print at 9.30am GMT this morning will be closely followed, too. Brexit woes will be weighing here but we expect the number to still come out comfortably ahead of the break even 50 mark.
AUD/USD picked up a little support from a marginally better than expected Australian retail sales print overnight, but the gains have been looking relatively tenuous. Metals prices have been coming off a shade of late, having admittedly taken a big leg up off the back of good Chinese data and the hopes of a US infrastructure boom and this isn’t helping the Aussie’s fortunes. With the non-farm payrolls expected to impress too, 0.7500 is likely to provide some impervious resistance unless we see a sharp jump in commodity prices.
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