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    Daily Analysis

    26 / 08 / 2016USD/JPY: Ranges around 100.40 ahead of Yellen’s speechNorth American Session
    The USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways since Wednesday, with the price ranging between the levels of 100.28 and 100.61.

    The pair sidelined during the course of the day on Thursday, touching the daily low of 100.29 and high of 100.61. Today, the major extended its consolidation pattern due to lack of clear direction and is currently trading around 100.40.

    All eyes are on Janet Yellen’s speech, as investors are looking for hints on the timing of the next rate hike by the Fed. In addition, the dollar will remain in focus, as second quarter GDP figures and the Reuters/Michigan index also due.

    Earlier in the day, inflation figures from Japan gauged by the National Core CPI indicated that consumer prices have decreased 0.5% in July on a year-over-year basis, igniting further doubts on the effectiveness of the policies implemented by the Bank of Japan to boost inflation.  

    A breach below Wednesday’s low of 100.09 could expose 99.76 and 99.25 respectively. On the upside, a break above 100.76 could open the doors to 101.16 and 101.83 in extension. 



     Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
     

    26 / 08 / 2016EUR/USD: Advances to 1.1307 as dollar weakensEuropean Session
    The EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards for the second day in a row, currently trading around the 1.1290/95 band.

    The major rose during the course of the day on Thursday, touching the daily high of 1.1297, before ending the day at 1.1283. Today the pair extended its upward trajectory to session highs of 1.1307, in response to a weaker tone around the dollar. As of writing the pair trades at 1.1290.

    Investors await the EMU’s M3 money supply and private loans reports, although the highlight of the day will be the Jackson Hole Symposium and Janet Yellen’s speech, along with another estimate of US Q2 GDP.

    In the event that the pair breaks above Thursday’s high of 1.1355, the pair could extend its gains up to 1.1423 and 1.1464 respectively. On the flip side, in the scenario that the price breaks below Wednesday’s low of 1.1246, the pair could find support at 1.1205 and 1.1143 in extension. 



    Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
     

    25 / 08 / 2016GBP/USD: Drop to session lows of 1.3177North American Session
    The GBP/USD pair is under bearish pressure, with the sellers dragging the price from as high as 1.3263 to as low as 1.3177.

    The major initially fell on Wednesday to session lows of 1.3160, before rising up to 1.3273, to end the day at 1.3230.Today, the pair attempted once again to test the area above 1.3263, but failed to gain traction and fell all the way down to session lows of 1.3160. As of writing, the pair trades at 1.3193.

    Investors await the release of the US monthly durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims, before Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow, which would determine the near-term trajectory of the pair.

    On a sustained move below the trough of 1.3177, the pair could find support at 1.3160 and 1.3090 in extension. On the upside, a break above 1.3230 could open the doors to 1.3272 and 1.3331 respectively.


    Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
       
     
    Daily Analysis

    Market News

    26 / 08 / 2016Dollar edged lower ahead of Yellen’s speechThe US dollar weakened on Friday ahead of the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s highly anticipated speech that some believe it could provide new signals on whether the Fed will hike rates in 2016.

    The US dollar index ticked down 0.1% to 94.718, on track for a modest gain of 0.2% for the week.

    Later in the day, Janet Yellen will conduct a keynote speech at a global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. She could convey a clear message that the Federal Reserve is poised for a hike this year, though many economists believe she will maintain her conservative stance that monetary policy is data-dependent and a rate rise is possible.

    Regional Fed presidents have sent hawkish signals in recent weeks, with Kansas City Fed President saying on Thursday that it is time for the US central bank to hike rates gradually, provided that there is progress in inflation and employment.

    Official statistics overnight reinforced the optimistic assessments of the world’s largest economy. New orders for US manufactured capital goods increased for a second consecutive month in July, as demand for machinery and a range of other products gained steam, while initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly.

    Following the release of the upbeat data, futures markets were giving a 24% chance the Fed will raise rates at its next policy meeting and a roughly 57% chance of a rise in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.  
    The greenback edged lower 0.1% to 100.46 against the yen, while holding steady against the euro at 1.1290.

    Data from Japan released earlier reinforced the view that the Bank of Japan has reasons to boost stimulus in September, as the economy falls back towards deflation.

    The country’s core consumer prices slid for a fifth consecutive month and posted the biggest annual decrease in more than three years in July, according to official statistics.  

    The BoJ at its July meeting disappointed investors by refraining from stepping up its government bond purchases programme, even as the government is poised to issue more debt to fund its latest stimulus drive.

    The disappointment pushed yields higher and lent support to the yen. Several economists argue that the yen could be in for a period of volatility and may even gain further ground in September, extending its recent upward trajectory.
     

    25 / 08 / 2016Yen loses ground after corporate services dataThe Japanese yen ticked down on Thursday, following the release of the corporate services price report, showing a higher than expected increase, while investors were turning cautious ahead of the Fed’s Chair remarks on Friday.

    On Thursday, People’s Bank of China exerted pressure on lenders into avoiding maturity discrepancies, especially against overnight funds, while stating it will provide adequate liquidity to the market.

    The dollar rose 0.04% to 100.49 against the yen. In Japan, official statistics showed that corporate services price index inched up 0.4%, exceeding the 0.1% increase seen on a year-over-year basis.

    The Australian dollar gained 0.21% to 0.7629 against its US counterpart, while the New Zealand dollar inched down 0.08% to 0.7319, hovering close to the recent 15-month high of 0.7347.

    The commodity currencies were underpinned as oil prices bounced back on Thursday, despite an increase in US stockpiles in the previous week.

    The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against a group of six other majors, was last at 94.68.

    Overnight, the greenback edged higher against its rivals, despite the release of soft US existing home sales data, as sentiment on the currency continued to strengthen in anticipation of Janet Yellen’s much-awaited speech at the end of the week.

    The US National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales declined by 3.2% in July to 5.49 million units from 5.57 units in the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.4% fall to 5.51 million units.

    Investors turned wary as they wait to see if the Fed Chair will restate a hawkish view of the economy, in line with other Fed officials last week, or reflect the minutes of the Fed’s July policy meeting, which revealed that policymakers are divided on the timing of the next rate hike.   

    Market watchers were also looking ahead to the U.S. jobless claims and durable goods order reports later in the day for new signals on the health of the economy.

    24 / 08 / 2016Greenback gains traction ahead of Yellen’s speechThe US dollar strengthened on Wednesday, pulling back from lows hit against the yen overnight, as investors await the gathering of global central bankers in Wyoming for signals on whether the Fed is ready to hike rates again.

    Official statistics released on Tuesday indicated that new US single-family home sales increased in July, touching the highest level in almost nine years, as demand increased rapidly, thus strengthening the outlook of the housing market.

    Central banks will meet in the Jackson Hole resort on Friday, with markets focused on the speech by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for new clues on the monetary policy outlook.

    Recent optimistic comments from the Fed Vice Chairman and the New York Fed President have increased expectations that Yellen might also take a less conservative stance.

    Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting minutes revealed that policymakers were divided whether to lift rates soon, with some arguing that more upbeat economic data were needed before any tightening.

    The greenback rose 0.2% to 100.45 against the yen, after falling below 100.00 overnight to 99.925. The major has been trading in a narrow range between 99.55 -102.83 this month, amid a lack of clear signals and low liquidity, as many investors took summer holidays.

    The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a group of six other major currencies, inched up 0.1% at 94.650.

    The common currency edged lower 0.1% to 1.1294 against the greenback, while rising 0.1% to 113.43 against the yen.

    Reports on Tuesday indicated that surprisingly strong growth in France supported eurozone’s private business activity during the month of August, thus strengthening the euro.

    The British pound fell 0.2% to 1.3172, after it reached a three-week high of 1.3210 overnight, following the release of UK manufacturing exports reports suggesting that the UK economy is managing well in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. 
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