24 / 01 / 2017 | Новости рынка

Brexit ruling will set pace for Pound

The focus will once again be on the Pound today as the UK government will learn the outcome of the supreme court appeal over the process for triggering Article 50 – the process for leaving the EU. If the government wins the appeal – this is the less likely outcome – then the pound is likely to drop again as it paves the way for a hard Brexit. However, assuming the government loses the appeal, it’s likely to be the granularity of the judge’s demands that will determine the scale  of the rally. Volatility is expected to be heightened in the wake of the event, which is scheduled for 9.30am GMT.

We have US manufacturing PMI estimates due for release at 2.45pm GMT and this could offer some direction on dollar crosses as a robust reading here would play to Federal Reserve hawks and with EUR/USD looking a little inflated above 1.07, there’s profit to be taken here from the recent run higher. There’s also US existing home sales data set for release at 3pm GMT and although a decline is expected here, it’s tipped to be a modest fall. Obviously any significant variation from expectations would have the potential to again skew the dollar’s standing, especially if house buyers are getting wary over the future even with rates down at these lows. 

Japanese manufacturing PMI data was released overnight and although it was a little hotter than expected, USD/JPY failed to make a sustained move lower. We’ve seen a notable slide in the pair over the year to date and until we get a better picture over trans-pacific trade ties, it’s perhaps going to be difficult for the Yen to advance any further even against a backdrop of favourable economic data. Trade balance data at 11.50pm GMT tonight will be the next option, although again the risk here is likely tipped on the upside for USD/JPY. 
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24 / 01 / 2017 | Технический анализ

USD/JPY finding support

We’re seeing support around the 112.50-112.60 area for USD/JPY and a descending triangle is forming for the pair. From here, rallies could be short lived.

 

USD/CHF is finding support at last year’s highs around 0.9960-0.9970. A break through here opens the way for a test on the 200 day MA.




Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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23 / 01 / 2017 | Новости рынка

Pound charges higher on ‘special relationship’ hopes

GBP/USD continues its march higher, finding highs not seen since the middle of December, with news that Theresa May is to meet Donald Trump this week helping lend support here. There’s an expectation of a passporting deal being arranged for UK and US banks to cooperate, so this could provide some valuable certainty for the UK economy given the question marks that continue to linger over Brexit. With the pair so beaten down, we do have the prospect of a sustained trend higher kicking in – on the assumption that the supportive messages continue to be seen.

Donald Trump’s inauguration speech was seen as being rather light on detail when it came to economic policy and this is driving much of the underlying direction right now. AUD/USD is still consolidating above 0.7500, although with limited Australian economic data due for release in the near term, the best chance of further direction here in the near term will come from political rhetoric. A statement on the White House website over the weekend confirmed that the US would withdraw from the Trans Pacific Partnership, although many other member seem to be treating this as a starting point. Further clarity here could be telling for the Aussie dollar.

The Eurozone consumer confidence reading we have due at 3pm GMT this afternoon may provide some fresh direction for Euro crosses. The common currency has been trending higher, with EUR/USD having found fresh highs for the year during the Asian session. Although the ECB is maintaining a dovish tone – something that we would expect to be reinforced when Mario Draghi speaks at 11.30am GMT – anything more than a modest month-on-month improvement here will be welcomed. Forecasts however suggest that the print will remain negative. These recent gains could leave the pair exposed on the downside.

Canadian wholesale sales data for November is slated for release at 1.30pm GMT and critically this will reflect attitudes in Canada in the wake of Donald Trump’s election. The Bank of Canada has been playing a dovish tune in recent months, although even with the prospect of cheap money on the table, fears over the drag on the Canadian economy if trade ties with the US take a tumble could end up weighing. As we have said before, it’s the uncertainty that pressures the market so badly.
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23 / 01 / 2017 | Технический анализ

GBP/USD breaks 50 day MA

Cable has taken out the 50 day MA and this could be the catalyst for further gains up to the early December highs around 1.2750.

 

EUR/GBP remains close to that 20 day MA and as noted, a break here opens up the way to Fibonacci levels of 0.8555 then 0.8400.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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20 / 01 / 2017 | Новости рынка

Aussie dollar hit by Chinese data disappointment

The Aussie Dollar has seen its attempt to push higher cut short in the wake of a slew of mediocre data, which was released over the last few hours from China. Although the full year GDP estimate did come in a fraction above expectations at 6.8% versus the forecast 6.7%, this is a shadow of the prints we were seeing a few years ago, whilst December’s Industrial Production figure also fell short of forecasts. The next big driver for the Aussie dollar could well be word of the future for the Trans Pacific Partnership – a trade deal that Donald Trump has vowed to withdraw from as soon as he takes office, although as with many of his proposals, it’s the detail which is lacking.

Janet Yellen spoke again overnight, managing once again to take a little heat out of overall dollar strength, although the DXY dollar index still holds well clear of 100. She was able to mount a solid defence of why interest rate increases should remain gradual and declared that the policy adopted by the Fed wasn’t putting the country at any risk. The parallel goals of low unemployment and 2% inflation were both being worked towards, although there were no further clues as to when the next rate hike may be seen.

UK retail sales data for December is due for release at 9.30am GMT and there’s concern that the December reading could be hampered by rising inflation and Brexit uncertainty kicking in – something that has largely eluded the market in the past few months. However any hit in spending is going to have a marked impact on UK GDP and predictions now suggest this could be as low as 0.8% for the year. The official release of this data is January 26th and it will be closely watched as anything that lacking puts the country back to levels not seen since the financial crisis – Sterling downside would be expected as a result.

Donald Trump will be sworn in to office as US President today at 5pm GMT and whilst this in itself isn’t a market-moving event, it does have the potential to trigger a whole string of policy changes. Any word on trade deals or tariff changes has the potential to trigger some sharp reactions in currency markets. USD/JPY and USD/CAD are arguably two pairs which could find themselves very much in the spotlight, although we don’t have the luxury of knowing precisely when any statement on this will be made. 
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20 / 01 / 2017 | Технический анализ

EUR/GBP eyes 20 day MA

EUR/GBP is close to breaking below the 20 day moving average. If this is delivered then look for potential to test 0.8555, the 38.2% retracement of the post-referendum move higher, then down to 0.8400.

 

EUR/JPY is once again working its way higher. Look for resistance around highs of last  six weeks of 123.75, support at 120.50.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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19 / 01 / 2017 | Новости рынка

Fed plans in spotlight

There has for some time been talk that Janet Yellen would be on a collision course with Donald Trump and last night’s comments – by all accounts – seemed to reinforce this point. The Federal Reserve Chief maintained her hawkish stance and indicated that the next rate hike wasn’t all that far off, although broad-based dollar support has been slow to materialise. That said, resurgent talk that the terms of the North America Free Trade Agreement would be renegotiated has served to drive USD/CAD notably higher. 

AUS/USD saw little response to the modest tick higher for the Australian unemployment rate, with the pair regaining 0.7500. Despite the overhang of the fact the country could still slide into recession this year, the bigger risk in the near term appears to be what happens next in terms of the Trans Pacific Partnership – another trade agreement that Donald Trump has made it clear he doesn’t support. Comments in the coming days regarding the future role of the US in this deal should be closely watched and could in turn add some fresh downside pressure to the Aussie dollar.

The ECB’s latest interest rate decision is due at 12.45pm GMT this afternoon, but there’s little expectation of Mario Draghi bringing anything new to the table. However any resurgent optimism in the subsequent press conference from 1.30pm GMT could give cause for cheer and in turn help offer EUR/USD some support, with recent highs around 1.07 the likely target. 

Crude oil prices may have been clear of the $50 mark for close on two months now, but again the incoming US President has the ability to shake up matters here a little. This afternoon’s inventory data will be closely followed and the headline figure is expected to show a modest draw. Failure to deliver here could well see prices slide once again, especially on the basis that Trump’s policies will likely favour an expansion of oil output.
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19 / 01 / 2017 | Технический анализ

USD/CAD rally stalls

USD/CAD gains have been capped around the 1.3275 resistance level from earlier in the year. If this breaks look for 1.3450 then 1.3600.



AUD/USD is struggling to maintain the 200 day MA and the run higher that has defined the year to date appears to be faltering. Look for a break lower with support around November lows of 0.7350.




Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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18 / 01 / 2017 | Новости рынка

Brexit plan buoys pound

The Brexit plans outlined by Theresa May in yesterday’s long awaited speech certainly served up a degree of calm to jittery currency markets. EUR/GBP slumped to one week lows as the markets digested the critical point that the PM conceded a parliamentary debate would be held before Article 50 was triggered – regardless of what the Supreme Court says. However this ruling – and we still have no indication of the exact timing of it – could demand a more granular approach and off the back of the rally we saw for the pound yesterday, it’s worth bearing in mind that this next key piece of information could provide another significant injection of volatility. 

There’s a general theme of weakness emerging for the greenback – at last – with the DXY dollar index threatening a test of 100 and although this wasn’t quite achieved, the currency is under pressure in the short term. Donald Trump’s inauguration takes place on Friday and there’s no shortage of concern over the volatility this could bring to the table. From concerns that intervention will be demanded to weaken the dollar, through to the challenges of implementing some of the policies that have made up the campaign, there’s no shortage of reason to be wary over where the currency may end up in the medium term. At a more mundane level, CPI data due for release at 1.30pm GMT will be worth watching as this could add more depth to the hawkish stance that’s being adopted by the FOMC, in turn providing at least some short term support. Janet Yellen also makes a speech at 8pm GMT and again given the key events of this week, any further clues over the Fed’s outlook stand to influence the dollar – this could go either way.  

The Bank of Canada issues its latest interest rate call at 3pm GMT, although with its quarterly monetary policy report. There’s an expectation that the uncertain future of US trade deals will leave the bank very much on the back foot, but no cut is expected. Just how dovish the signals are in the subsequent press conference - which starts at 4.15pm GMT - could leave the Loonie looking further exposed on the downside. 
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18 / 01 / 2017 | Технический анализ

EUR/GBP slump unsustainable?

EUR/GBP is heading back towards the 38.2% retracement of the post-referendum rally, although 20 day MA is still rising. Failure to break below 0.8555 opens door to renewed EUR rally. 

 

USD/ZAR remains in that long term descending triangle although 200 day MA is edging higher. Support remains recent lows around 13.15, resistance around 13.90.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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