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Fundamental Analysis 2017.09.25 – The Results of The German Election
Today’s market
The day’s trend will probably be determined by Sunday’s election for the Bundestag in Germany. Although Chancellor Merkel won another term, as expected, the far-right AfD took a substantial amount of support from both her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Support for these two main parties fell to historic lows. The SPD announced it would not renew its coalition agreement with the CDU, meaning the CDU would have to form a new coalition. This could prove somewhat destabilizing for the euro today.
The continuing dispute over a referendum on Catalonian independence, scheduled for 1 October, may also cause some political worries for the euro.
Also on the political front, the Brexit negotiations get under way again today after UK PM May’s speech on Friday. May did make some concessions, but the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, called for a “precise negotiating position.” I think the talks are likely to go nowhere fast and therefore be negative for the pound.
The indicators start off with the Ifo survey for Germany. The forecast is for all three indicators to be 0.1 point higher, which is virtually unchanged in my book. That would be a contrast with the sharp (and unexpected) rise in the German purchasing managers’ indices for the month. If the figures come in as forecast, I’d expect the euro to be little changed. However looking at the PMIs, I think there’s a good chance of an upward surprise that might boost the euro.

The Dallas Fed survey is expected to be sharply lower, in contrast to the sharp rise in the Philadelphia Fed survey and the small drop in the Empire State survey. Considering the disastrous weather that hit the region, this would be no surprise. I expect the market would discount the extraordinary conditions there and the figure would probably have little impact on the dollar, particularly after the Fed said after its recent meeting that “past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term.”

Overnight, New Zealand’s trade balance is expected to swing into deep deficit from a modest surplus. However the figures are not seasonally adjusted and so it makes more sense to look at a 12-month moving average. On that basis, the forecast deficit would still mean a slightly narrowing of the deficit, which could be positive for the NZD. However, I expect the impact of this figure to be largely muted by the discussion of the results of the weekend’s inconclusive election. The ruling party failed to win a majority, which means there are probably several weeks of talks to form a coalition.


This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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