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Focus swings from Europe to US
Our prop desk has seen some profits overnight off the back of short Yen positions as well as a long EUR/USD trade. However attempts to call a top in the rally for European equity indices yesterday delivered nothing more than frustration.
Daily round up
There’s not all that much on the economic calendar today, but the risk focus is shifting from Europe to North America, as what is widely seen as the best outcome in the French election makes way for Trump’s 100th day in office. The screw is being tightened in terms of trade deals, whilst geopolitical tensions continue to mount, too. With the US clearly in no mood for making friends internationally, the next move could be a flight from the greenback.
Fundamental Analysis – Markets uneventful as focus swings from Europe to US
It has been a largely uneventful 24 hours for the major currency pairs with little overall direction having been found. The relief rally off the back of the likely win for centrist candidate Macron in the French presidential elections was relatively short lived – at least as far as currencies were concerned – and the focus is now moving to the US. Donald Trump will mark 100 days in office this weekend and there’s a degree of expectation over delivery of promised tax reform by then. We also have those mounting tensions with North Korea still very much on the agenda, but with granular fundamentals looking to be in relatively short supply, downside pressures on the greenback could be sustained in the near term. The DXY dollar index is wallowing around the 99 mark, perhaps reflective of those concerns that the hawkish stance at the Fed may be abating, too.
UK public sector borrowing data is due for release at 8.30am GMT this morning, something that could have influence over both the value of Sterling as well as UK bond yields. The country does have a general election looming but media reports are increasingly bullish over the fact this will deliver a significant majority for the incumbent Prime Minister, so even a modest rise in any reported deficit this morning is unlikely to derail sentiment here.
The Canadian dollar has been left on the back foot amidst reports that the US is to levy tariffs of up to 24% on some timber imports from the North. The move is backed by allegations of unfair Canadian government subsidies for some firms in the sector and apparently came off the back of the collapse of talks between the two nations over dairy imports. It’s worth pointing out that the sector has been embroiled in a cross-border trade war for some years, but this will be seen as a defining moment in the Trump presidency in terms of delivery against one of those campaign pledges.

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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