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LATEST MARKET NEWS
The CME’s (Chicago Mercantile Exchange & Chicago Board of Trade) FedWatch Tool which market analysts take into consideration when the Fed’s decisions on interest rates are imminent gave, on Monday September 24th 2018, 93.8% chances for a 0.25% rate hike. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, there was a 6.2% probability for the Fed to lift its benchmark interest rate to 2.50%. If the forecast is confirmed this will be the third time that the FOMC announces a rate hike this year.
With a benchmark interest rate hike highly likely in the September 2018 meeting, the number of hikes in the current monetary tightening cycle will reach seven. The Fed began pushing borrowing costs higher at the end of 2015, following seven years of ultra-low interest rates as a result of the financial crisis that erupted in 2008.
Some economists believe that tempered increases in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will allow the Fed to raise interest rates gradually. Headline inflation in the US has edged up in recent months, pushed up by higher fuel prices but the core CPI inflation which is closely monitored by the Fed’s board has advanced modestly.
ING forecasts December 2018 rate hike
In a report published on Monday September 24th 2018, ING analysts suggested that the FOMC will proceed in raising borrowing costs by 0.25% on Wednesday’s meeting. “Growth is undoubtedly very strong, with high-frequency indicators suggesting activity likely accelerated in 3Q18 after the economy expanded at an already stellar 4.2% annualised rate in 2Q18. At the same time, all of the major inflation measures are at or above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, wages are picking up, the unemployment rate is close to an 18-year low and asset prices continue to rise. All this points to further tightening of policy,” was noted in their report.
ING’s economists added that “we are also seeing a broadening out of the reasoning for higher interest rates. For example, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren has repeatedly warned that monetary policy should be tightened from a financial stability perspective. He and others worry that unduly low borrowing costs could be the trigger for excessive risk-taking, which will store up trouble for the US economy in the future. For that reason, we expect a rate hike this week and another in December. But markets will be watching closely for hints about the Fed's plans for 2019.”
STO and trading the US Dollar
The US Dollar against the Euro, the US Dollar against the British Pound and the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen are just three of the major currency pairs that you can trade with on the STO platform. STO provides its clients with all the necessary educational material such as webinars to help them with preparing a suitable trading strategy.
Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66.52% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with AFX Capital Markets Ltd. 64.84 % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with AFX Markets Ltd. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. For more information about the key risks associated with CFDs, please refer to our full Risk Disclosure.
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