30 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY: Today’s Major Levels 113.60 and 114.79

North American Session
The EUR/JPY pair has been gradually moving higher since Friday, the 24th of June 2016, with the upward pressures being noticed from as low as 109.49 to as high as 114.79.

During the course of the session today, the pair initially rose up to 114.52 to subsequently fall down to 113.60, before rising once again back to 114.79. At the time of writing the pair is trading at 113.87.
 
In the event that the buyers keep pushing higher and the price breaks above 114.79, profit targets could be locked in at 115.45 and 116.85 respectivly.
 
On the other hand, in the scenario where the price finds the 114.79 level to be too resistive and the price corrects below 112.75, the pair could go down to 112.16 and 111.52 in extension.

Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
 
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30 / 06 / 2016 | Market News

Aussie and kiwi fall on improved risk sentiment

The Australian and New Zealand dollars lost ground against the greenback on Thursday, as risk sentiment improved, following post-Brexit fears on global markets and their recovery.

Financial markets recovered on Tuesday and Wednesday from concerns that UK’s exit from the EU could affect investment in the U.K. economy, threaten London’s role as a financial metropolis and mark the beginning of a period of economic slowdown.

The U.S. dollar found support after the U.S. Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that personal spending rose by 0.4% in May, in line with expectations, while April’s figure was downwardly revised to a 1.1% increase that has been its highest level in seven years.
 
The Aussie fell 0.42% to 0.7420 against the dollar, while the Kiwi lost 0.46% to trade at 0.7080 against the greenback.
 
Earlier today, official statistics indicated that the ANZ business confidence index for New Zealand inched up to 20.2 this month from 11.3 in May.
 
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against a group of six other peers, rose 0.21% to 95.89.

Elsewhere, People’s Bank of China announced that it is prepared to let the yuan fall to 6.8% per dollar in order to boost the economy, which would mean that the currency could match 2015 record decline of 4.5%.

The currency is already trading at its weakest level in more than five years, so the PBOC will aim to achieve a gradual decline out of fear of activating the sort of capital outflows that wobbled the economy earlier in 2016.

An unexpected devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 sent financial markets into a spin of concerns that the Chinese economy was slowing down, triggering massive capital outflows as investors sought safe havens.   

The currency has fallen to fresh lows after the U.K.’s vote to leave the EU and so far the central bank has not taken any actions towards intervening, suggesting it is content with yuan’s depreciation. Other emerging currencies have also gone down, but the yuan is the weakest Asian currency against the greenback in 2016. 

Ahead in the day, investors will be looking at the U.K.’s GDP, eurozone’s CPI, the U.S. weekly unemployment claims and Chicago PMI. 
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30 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

USD/CHF: Consolidates around the 0.9800 area

European Session
The USD/CHF pair has been trading sideways since the 28th of June, with the price ranging between the levels of 0.9764 and 0.9838.

The pair consolidated around 0.9805 during the course of the day on Wednesday. Today, the major is extending its consolidation move and is currently trading at 0.9808.

Regardless of some improvement in risk sentiment, resulting in a weaker dollar that helped most pairs to recover some ground, the USD/CHF pair is seen consolidating on the possibility of an intervention from the Swiss National Bank in the event of a sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc.  

Immediate resistance lines up at 0.9838, which if conquered could open room towards 0.9903 and 0.9954 in extension.

Conversely, in the event that the pair breaks below 0.9764, the pair could find support at 0.9745 and 0.9717 respectively.  



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
 
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29 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

USD/CAD: Major Levels 1.2976 and 1.3041

North American Session
The USD/CAD pair has been trading downwards since Monday, the 27th of June 2016, with the bears leading the price from as high as 1.3120 to as low as 1.2976.  

During the early European session the pair dropped from 1.3041 to 1.2976.  As of writing the pair price is currently trading at 1.2991.
 
In the event that the bears manage to force the price even lower and reach the level of 1.2951, the pair could find support at 1.2899 and 1.2847 respectivly.  

On the flip side, in the scenario where the price breaks above the level of 1.3030, the pair could escalate up to 1.3065 and 1.3086 in extension. 



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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29 / 06 / 2016 | General

U.S. Independence Day Trading Schedule Changes

Please note that due to the upcoming Independence Day in the U.S. on the 4th July 2016, the trading schedule for the following instruments will be affected:

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29 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP: Consolidates above 0.8300

European Session
The EUR/GBP pair has been trading sideways since the 27th of June 2016, with the price ranging between the levels of 0.8241 and 0.8380.

The cross corrected to the downside on Tuesday, reaching the daily low of 0.8258. Today, the pair gained traction and consolidated above the 0.8300 area, as the heightened political uncertainty and economic implications surrounding Brexit seem to restrict any sharp recovery for the sterling.

Moving ahead, investors will be monitoring the release of German preliminary CPI print for June, U.K. PM David Cameron’s meeting with other EU leaders and further comments from the second day of the EU council meeting.

From a technical perspective, on a subsequent move above 0.8356, the pair could extend its gains up to 0.8417 and 0.8481 in extension.

Alternatively, in the scenario where the price breaks below 0.8241, the pair could find support at 0.8192 and 0.8159 respectively.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
 
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28 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

USD/JPY: Advances to the top of the range at 102.42

North American Session
The USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways since the 24th of June 2016, with the price ranging between the levels of 102.42 and 101.41.

Today, the pair bounced off from session lows, currently trading at the top of the trading range at 102.42. Regardless of improving global risk appetite, the pair didn’t register any significant recovery, as investors remained cautious about the implications of the UK’s vote to exit the EU.

Market watchers now shift their attention to the final print of the U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2014 and June consumer confidence statistics in order to take advantage of some trading opportunities.

On a subsequent break that 102.42, the pair could rise up to 102.71 and 103.55 in extension.

On the flip side, in the scenario where the price breaks below 101.84, the pair could find support at 101.61 and 101.12 respectively.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
 
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28 / 06 / 2016 | Market News

All you don’t know about Brexit. What is next?

28 June, AtoZForex – Following Thursday’s EU Referendum on UK membership, results were out on Friday with 51.9% of Britons voting to leave against 48.1% voting to remain. The decision had shocked the markets and set a stage for even more uncertainty. Here is all you don’t know about Brexit and what is next.

What we know about Brexit
By Friday’s market closing, global shares were down, safe haven assets have rallied, and market risk sentiment strengthened. The shock was not only felt from economic perspective, political and military issues started pouring out. 

Scottish referendum
At that point, reality of the decision started to sink in. Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, said it was “democratically unacceptable” that Scotland faced the prospect of being taken out of the Eurozone against its will. “It is, therefore, a statement of the obvious that a second referendum must be on the table, and it is on the table,” she said.

British military pre-eminence
Without Scotland, UK is extremely unlikely to continue to play a role of a military centre. And without this strategic centre, the United States military pre-eminence which suppresses security tensions and maintains global trade routes, essential for the global economy, will become a lot weaker.

£350m bus campaign lies
At the same time, £350m bus campaign lies have surfaced. It turned out that £350m a week campaign was indeed not correct. Speaking on Good Morning Britain after the referendum result, Nigel Farage confirmed that there was no guarantee for £350m to go to the National Health Service as was initially promised. Saying that the campaign was a “mistake.”

Indications of financial crisis
Most worryingly, the symbol of economy – Banks have been hit by Brexit the most. Barclays PLC shares and Royal Bank of Scotland Group closed Friday down roughly 18%, France’s BNP Paribas SA tumbled almost 18%, and Spain’s Banco Santander SA fell nearly 20%.
In the US, meanwhile, Morgan Stanley fell about 10%, and Citigroup Inc. dropped approximately 9%.
What’s more, London – Europe’s financial centre could lose between 70,000 to 100,000 financial services jobs by 2020, according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers.
The way how shares overreacted, in tandem with shift in safe haven gold trend and loss in control of economy by central banks warns of an upcoming financial crisis.

Petition for 2nd EU Referendum
All of the above sank in and many Britons started to regret their decision to leave. Thus, a petition for a 2nd EU Referendum was submitted. It has gathered over 3.7 million signatures, while for the government to consider any petition just 100,000 signatures are needed.

With such a negative effect on businesses within the UK, it’s likely that the petition for EU Referendum will be passed and with second referendum Britain might not leave the EU after all.

GBPUSD post Brexit outlook 
Following a massive 18 cent GBPUSD devaluation post Brexit, the pair has consolidated between Fibonacci 161.8% and custom Fibonacci 188% retracement levels. We can expect the market to continue to trade irrationally for the reminder of the week, especially from a lower timeframe.


That said, looking from a bigger picture we can expect 1.3 and 1.35 levels to determine the longer term trend. Shorter term support and resistance levels fall on Fibonacci 200%, and 161.8% retracement zones at 1.315, 1.324, and 1.34 respectively.







 
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28 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

EUR/USD: Major Levels 1.1009 and 1.1075

European Session
The EUR/USD pair has been moving upwards since Friday, the 24th of June 2016, with the price rising from 1.0911 up to 1.1075.  

During the early opening of the European session, the EUR/USD advanced from 1.1009 to 1.1075. As of writing the pair price is currently trading at 1.1059.  
 
In the event that the seller manages to force the price below the level of 1.1011, profit targets could be set at 1.0973 and 1.0950 respectively.
 
In the scenario where the price breaks above the level of 1.1090, the pair could escalate up to 1.1146 and 1.1202 in extension.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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