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Economists focus on EU and UK CPI inflation data
UK CPI inflation
The most important of the releases is the UK’s CPI inflation data. The CPI is an indicator used to measure the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall, which is the rate of inflation, referred to as the CPI inflation. Analysts are anticipating that the CPI inflation picked up coming in at 2.8%, on an annualised basis. In August 2018, the UK’s CPI inflation came in at 2.7% on an annualised basis from 2.5% in July 2018 and above the analysts’ expectations for a 2.4% figure.
The ONS will also release data regarding the UK’s core CPI inflation in September 2018. Core CPI inflation is inflation excluding the prices of seasonally volatile products such as food and energy. According to analysts’ forecasts, the UK’s core CPI inflation is expected to have increased from 0.9% recorded in June 2018 to 1.0% in September 2018 on a year-to-year basis.
Nomura, which is one of the largest financial services group with headquarters in Asia, published a report on Monday October 15th 2018 forecasting a UK CPI inflation drop. “We forecast a fall in CPI inflation in September following its above-consensus print the previous month. Rises in petrol prices and utility bills could limit how far inflation declines in September 2018, however, which explains our forecast of just a one tenth fall to 2.6%. We look for CPI inflation to fall back towards its 2% target over the next six months,” said the report.
EU CPI inflation
On Wednesday October 17th 2018 Eurostat is expected to release the Eurozone’s CPI and core CPI inflation finalised data for September 2018. Economists forecast that the Eurozone’s CPI inflation is likely to have picked up, coming in at 2.1% on an annualised basis. In August 2018 the annual inflation rate in the Euro bloc had reached 2%. If the forecast is confirmed by the statistics, the 2.1% inflation reading will be the highest recorded since July 2018.
Annual core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile prices of energy, food, alcohol & tobacco and at which the European Central Bank (ECB) looks in its policy decisions, is likely to ease to 0.9% in September 2018 from 1% in August 2018, below market consensus of 1.1%.
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