25 / 09 / 2017 | Market News

Fundamental Analysis 2017.09.25 – The Results of The German Election

Today’s market
The day’s trend will probably be determined by Sunday’s election for the Bundestag in Germany. Although Chancellor Merkel won another term, as expected, the far-right AfD took a substantial amount of support from both her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Support for these two main parties fell to historic lows. The SPD announced it would not renew its coalition agreement with the CDU, meaning the CDU would have to form a new coalition. This could prove somewhat destabilizing for the euro today.
The continuing dispute over a referendum on Catalonian independence, scheduled for 1 October, may also cause some political worries for the euro.
Also on the political front, the Brexit negotiations get under way again today after UK PM May’s speech on Friday. May did make some concessions, but the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, called for a “precise negotiating position.” I think the talks are likely to go nowhere fast and therefore be negative for the pound.
The indicators start off with the Ifo survey for Germany. The forecast is for all three indicators to be 0.1 point higher, which is virtually unchanged in my book. That would be a contrast with the sharp (and unexpected) rise in the German purchasing managers’ indices for the month. If the figures come in as forecast, I’d expect the euro to be little changed. However looking at the PMIs, I think there’s a good chance of an upward surprise that might boost the euro.


 
 
The Dallas Fed survey is expected to be sharply lower, in contrast to the sharp rise in the Philadelphia Fed survey and the small drop in the Empire State survey. Considering the disastrous weather that hit the region, this would be no surprise. I expect the market would discount the extraordinary conditions there and the figure would probably have little impact on the dollar, particularly after the Fed said after its recent meeting that “past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term.”


 
 
Overnight, New Zealand’s trade balance is expected to swing into deep deficit from a modest surplus. However the figures are not seasonally adjusted and so it makes more sense to look at a 12-month moving average. On that basis, the forecast deficit would still mean a slightly narrowing of the deficit, which could be positive for the NZD. However, I expect the impact of this figure to be largely muted by the discussion of the results of the weekend’s inconclusive election. The ruling party failed to win a majority, which means there are probably several weeks of talks to form a coalition.


 
 

 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
...
read more
25 / 09 / 2017 | Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis 2017.09.25 - AUD/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line (89.37). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (89.60).

 

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (88.95). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (90.09).



This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
...
read more
25 / 09 / 2017 | Market News

25th of September 2017 - CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens Coalition Wins but With Conditions

The AfD gaining 13.5% of the Bundstag weighed down on the single currency
opening of the new week.
 
This Far Right AfD, created in 2014, is not only negative for the EUR but also for European Markets at large, but could increase its popularity with populist anti -immigration rhetoric.
The success of AfD was a result of the CDU/CSU coalition gaining only 32.5% and
the SPD which retreated to 20%, after their participation in the previous coalition government.
 
The SPD candidate Martin Shultz refused to be in this same coalition which made his party a
second choice, lowering its popularity and its chance to reach the position of the Chancellor.
So, now the most possible coalition is between CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens a team-up which is likely to be beneficial to domestic industrial production which includes manufacturing giants such as Siemens, Bosch, Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler. It could also potentially benefit financial institutions such as Deutsche Bank and Commerz Bank.
 
As the right Free Democratic Party's program is based on more lenient legislation and policy for business corporations, while the Greens main policy preoccupation is – as their name indicates - the environment.
 
So, Merkel's rule in the so-called “Jamaica Coalition” (called that due to the colors of each party combined) should pave the way for FDP's economic stimulus plans without hurting the financial situation of Germany which is the concern of her conservative CDU party. This should also leave the  Paris climate pact intact an important point for the Greens.
 
Merkel with this new coalition cannot keep the germane door opened anymore as it has been in
2015 to more than 1 million migrants or as she has promised in the case of facing the same
circumstances again.

Merkel's action distorted the political situation Germany, as it has not only given the right
support, but it also revived racist population in the Germany society that had practically almost
completely disappeared previously.
Markets will be focusing on the developments in Germany and also will be waiting today for the release of Sep German IFO, before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's speech today
 
EURUSD Hourly Chart:

 
EURUSD Daily Chart:

EURUSD failed to maintain a place above 1.20 psychological level last Friday, Before closing
last week at 1.1946.
 
EURUSD opened the new week on a downside gap at 1.1921 and it could not fill this gap until
now.
 
EURUSD has previously formed a lower high at 1.2032 below its peak at 1.2092 which has
been formed on Sep. 8.
 
EURUSD is now in its ninth day of being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum
0.2) which is reading today 1.2025.
 
However EURUSD is still underpinned by continued being above its daily SMA50, its daily
SMA100 and its daily SMA200, after forming a series of higher lows had started with its
formed bottom at 1.0339 on the third day of this year to be the lowest level since December
2002.
 
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in the neutral region reading 53.176.
EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still
having its main line in the neutral region at 44.851 leading to the downside its signal line
which is at 46.095.
 
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1827, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1527 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1095
 
S&R:
S1: 1.1822
S2: 1.1662
S3: 1.1612
R1: 1.2032
R2: 1.2092
R3: 1.2271
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
...
read more
22 / 09 / 2017 | Market News

Fundamental Analysis 2017.09.22 – EU and German PMIs Today

Today’s market
The European day starts off with the manufacturing and service-sector purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for France, Germany and the EU as a whole. The manufacturing PMIs are expected to be slightly lower, which could prove negative for the euro, at least temporarily. However, given the rather high level that these indices are at to begin with (the EU manufacturing PMI is at its highest level since April 2011), I’m not sure a small decline as is forecast would really make much of a difference to anyone’s view.


 
When the North American day starts up, it’s a big day for Canadian indicators with both CPI and retail sales coming out.
Canadian CPI headline figure is expected to rise notably, bringing it closer to the center of the Bank of Canada’s 1%-3% target band. This could boost the likelihood of another rate hike this year. But since the market’s estimate of the probability has gone from 47% last Friday to 65% on Thursday, it seems opinion is already shifting that way. That suggests the figure may already be largely discounted and although it should be positive for CAD, we might not see much movement if indeed it does come out as forecast. 


 
On the other hand, Canadian retail sales are expected to come in below trend. That could prove negative for CAD and slightly offset any positive impulse from the CPI figure – although there’s little doubt that the Bank of Canada is more focused on the CPI, as it seems confident about the strength of the economy.


 
The Markit US PMIs are expected to show a mixed picture, with manufacturing rising but services falling. The market generally pays more attention to manufacturing though, so the news could be mildly positive for the dollar, especially given the currency’s recent surge following the FOMC meeting.


 
UK PM Theresa May will make an important speech on Brexit in Florence, Italy. The official comments on the speech are only that May will give an "update on Brexit negotiations so far" and “will underline the government's wish for a deep and special partnership with the European Union once the UK leaves the EU." But with the negotiations deadlocked, everyone is hoping for a major policy initiative that can get the talks going again when they resume next Monday.

The main stumbling block in the negotiations seems to be what’s being called the “divorce bill,” or how much Britain has to pay to cover existing commitments at the time it leaves. The Financial Times has reported that she will offer EUR 20bn, but this is only about half what the EU is looking for. This payment is the main priority for the EU negotiators, while maintaining trade relationships after Brexit is the main priority for the UK. That’s why I expect the speech to disappoint the EU and the markets by failing to provide any breakthrough, and why I expect the pound to fall afterwards.
Over the weekend, Germany holds an election for the Bundestag, or Parliament. This is the first vote since Chancellor Merkel opened the door to a huge influx of immigrants in 2015. While Merkel is expected to win a fourth term, it’s expected that six parties will win seats for the first time in the post-war period. This may make it more difficult for Merkel’s coalition to pass legislation, especially if the junior party in the coalition, the Christian Socialist Union (CSU), decides to distance itself from Merkel and her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in preparation for Merkel’s eventual retirement. Nonetheless, she is expected win, which could be EUR-positive at the opening on Monday.
 

 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
...
read more
22 / 09 / 2017 | Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis 2017.09.22 - EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud (133.58). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (133.80).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (132.45). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (134.30).



This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
...
read more
21 / 09 / 2017 | Market News

Fundamental Analysis 2017.09.21 – FOMC and BoJ Meetings

Today’s market
Following yesterday’s excitement with the FOMC and the overnight focus on the Bank of Japan, the rest of the day is likely to be spent analysing the impact of those two meetings. The schedule during the day isn’t likely to move rates that much.
The UK Government’s borrowing in August is expected to be higher than the previous month, but the figure isn’t seasonally adjusted. The consensus forecast of GBP 7.1bn would bring the 12-month moving average to GBP 3.95bn, little changed from the previous two months (GBP 3.92bn in July and GBP 3.96bn in June). In other words, fiscal policy looks pretty stable – the deficit is neither widening nor narrowing. In that case, a figure along the lines of the consensus forecast should be GBP-neutral.

 
The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index is forecast to be down slightly, much like the Empire State index of a week earlier, which also fell a bit. That could depress the dollar somewhat as this is a market-affecting index.  

 
 
ECB President Draghi gives a keynote address in his capacity of Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board. It’s unclear if the speech will hit upon monetary policy, but if he wants to he can always find a way to sneak a comment in. Look especially for some comment on whether the market’s interpretation of last week’s ECB meeting was correct.
EU consumer confidence is expected to be unchanged at just below the post-Global Financial Crisis high set back in June. The last time the index was around this level was in 2007 before the Lehman Bros crisis. Thus I would say that even no change in the index would be a show of confidence that should prove positive for the euro.

 
 

 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
...
read more
21 / 09 / 2017 | Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis 2017.09.21 – AUDJPY Bullish Safe-havens

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (89.744). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (90.290).
 

 
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are directed upwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (88.676). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (90.425).
 

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
 
...
read more
21 / 09 / 2017 | General

German Elections 2017 – CDU/CSU Still Holding Majority, but Polls Showing Difference

The expected coalition

 
The most recent ZDF poll published last Friday showed that Merkel's CDU/CSU coalition is leading with 39% support, While the Forsa poll sees that CDU/CSU has retreated to 36% and the SPD is still standing at 23%.
German equities are still underpinned by optimism about the country’s economic outlook, largely due to the pro-business coalition of the CDU/CSU being in the lead.
 

CDU/CSU and SPD

 
If the CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic party (SPD) government is preserved in the next term, this can open the door for Martin Shultz's inflation plans.
The DAX30 we also see an influx, as industrial stocks such as Siemens, Bosch, Daimler, Volkswagen and BMW due to the coalition’s positive stance on domestic industrial production.
After the recent September 3rd debate Schulz is inching closer to the position of deputy chancellor to Merkel during her fourth term.
 

CDU/CSU, The Greens and FDP

 
A coalition between CDU/CSU, The Greens and The Free Democratic Party FDP is still very plausible.
FDP party is looking for more tax cuts and easier legislation for the companies and which is good news for corporations, but the FDP has shown disapproval for Germany’s de facto rule in EU.
DAX30 will see a boost by this coalition also underpinning the demand for equities in several industries, especially for financial institutions such as Commerz Bank and Deutsche Bank.
 

Avoiding the AfD

 
There are no signs whatsoever that the far-right AfD will be part of any coalition.
At the moment though, the latest polls are showing a meager 9% gain. The far-right, euro-skeptic, anti-immigration party is still likely to hold seats in the Bundestag.
Markets will likely react negatively to this bringing down the EUR, as the party has given no clear economic package as its populist platform mainly focused on the 2015 and 2016 waves of immigrants and asylum seekers.
 

The worst possibility

 
A tightening gap between CDU/CSU and its counterparts is the worst possible scenario for the EUR, as it will destabilize Germany politically; splitting the Bundestag leaving it unable to reach an easy decision in relation to bailing out indebted countries in the EU. This in turn would destabilize the Union at large creating a volatile environment which will likely result in investors selling off the one-currency.  
 

 EURUSD Daily Chart: 


 
EURUSD came under downside pressure in the recent hours to form a lower high at 1.2032 below its peak at 1.2092 which has been formed on Sep. 8.

EURUSD contained most of its bouncing up from 1.1837 by relatively high downside momentum can expose 1.1822 supporting level to be broken over the short term.

EURUSD is now trading close to 1.1885 level in its seventh day of consecutive being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.2041.

EURUSD is still underpinned by forming series of higher lows which have started with its formed bottom at 1.0339 on the third day of this year to be the lowest level since December 2002.

After rising from its formed bottom at 1.1569 on last Apr. 10, EURUSD succeeded until now to maintain its existence above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence nearly in the middle of the neutral region reading 50.103.

EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in the neutral region at 43.043 leading to the downside its signal line which is at 59.392.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1808, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1507 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1079

Support and Resistance: 

S1: 1.1822
S2: 1.1662
S3: 1.1612
R1: 1.2032
R2: 1.2092
R3: 1.2271
 

Deutsche Bank Daily Chart: 


 
Deutsche Bank stock extended its slide yesterday to €13.50 from €14.28 which limited its rebounding from its Sep. 6 bottom at €13.12.

Deutsche Bank stock spent yesterday its first day of being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which has been reading at €14.28 yesterday.

Deutsche Bank stock is still undermined by continued being well below its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200, after facing difficulty to rebound higher than €14.28 which is now forming a lower high below its formed resistance at €14.77 on last Aug. 16.

Deutsche Bank daily RSI-14 is referring  now to lower existence inside the neutral region reading 40.818.

Deutsche Bank daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its oversold region below 20 at 13.128 leading to the downside its signal line which is still inside the neutral area at 32.248, after peaking up inside the overbought territory above 80.
 
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 14.59, Daily SMA100 @ 15.41 and Daily SMA200 @ 16.44

Support and Resistance:

S1: 13.12
S2: 12.00
S3: 9.89
R1: 14.28
R2: 14.77
R3: 15.66
 
 

DAX30 Daily chart: 


After footing on 12479, DAX30 could extend its rebound from 11866 to be trading now at 12630 in its day number 12 of continued being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading now 12310.

DAX30 which is now at a closer place to last Jul. 13 peak at 12678 is still underpinned over the short term by being above its Daily SMA50, after it could form an intermediate support at 12242 during its rising from 11866.

DAX30 is also underpinned over longer term too by keeping existence above its Daily SMA100 and also it has been above its Daily SMA200 since bottoming out at 12032.48 on Sep. 4.

DAX30 daily RSI is referring to existence at a higher place inside the neutral territory at 67.227.

DAX30 daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in its neutral region at 78.503 to be at a closer place to the overbought area above 80 leading to the upside its signal line which is lower inside the neutral region at 72.495.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 12276, Daily SMA100 @ 12467 and Daily SMA200 @ 12150

Support and Resistance: 

S1: 12479
S2: 12242
S3: 12032
R1: 12678
R2: 12841
R3: 12953
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
...
read more
20 / 09 / 2017 | Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis 2017.09.20 - EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (133.70). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (134.15).
 

 
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (131.80). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (134.15).
 

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
 
...
read more
20 / 09 / 2017 | Market News

Fundamental Analysis 2017.09.20 – Fed Balance Sheet, FOMC Meeting Today

Today’s market
The focus today will no doubt be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Following that, overnight there will be a Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Board meeting, but that is expected to result in only technical changes to policy at best.

No one expects the FOMC to change rates, but they are expected to announce the details of how they plan to reduce their massive balance sheet, which is nearly 5x as big as it was before they started quantitative easing. That has the potential to move US bond yields and therefore the dollar. However, they’ve been talking about it for months and have pledged to move gradually, so the impact may be limited. 


 
 
Of more importance may be the new “dot plot” giving their estimates for where they expect rates to be in the future. The FOMC’s forecasts are significantly higher than the market’s, as has been the case for some time; will they revise down their forecasts to be more in line with the market, or are they still confident about hitting their targets in the projection period? Along with that, the revised inflation forecasts will also be a focus. 


 
The BoJ Policy Board are unanimously expected to keep rates stable. It’s the one-year anniversary of their “yield curve control (YCC) policy.” During that time, the 10-year JGB yield has largely ranged between -10 bps and +10 bps, meaning that the BoJ has succeeded in its pledge to keep the 10-year JGB yield “around 0%.” However, the BoJ’s bond holdings only increased by ¥66tn over that time, notably lower than the ¥80tn that they had pledged. They could acknowledge that difference at this week’s meeting by either changing the target to a range, such as ¥60tn-¥80tn, or even eliminating it altogether. I don’t think such a technical change would have any impact on the currency, so I expect a fairly low-key reaction to the meeting. 


 
Indicators
 
Aside from those two central bank meetings, Britain announces its retail sales for August. Sales excluding autos and fuel are expected to be unchanged from the previous month, while the year-on-year rate is also expected to slow. With real wage growth negative and consumer sentiment depressed, sluggish retail sales are no surprise. Slowing growth of retail sales suggests less pressure on the diminishing spare capacity in the economy and therefore marginally less need to hike rates soon, which could be negative for the pound.


 
US existing home sales are forecast to rise. While labor shortages and the difficulty procuring land are apparently holding back housing starts, there can be no such excuses with sales of existing homes, except insofar as people can’t sell their home unless they can be reasonably sure that they can find another one to buy. In any event, a rise here would probably be seen as positive for the dollar, even if it does appear that the figure isn’t likely to regain the January highs any time soon.

 
 

 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
...
read more



FX and CFD trading are high risk and may not be suitable for everyone, ensure you fully understand the risks. You may sustain a loss of some or all of your invested capital.You may sustain a loss of some or all of your invested capital

TRADE NOW RISK FREE DEMO