30 / 03 / 2018 | Análisis técnico

Technical Analysis 30.03.2018 – GBP/NZD: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have merged, both lines are directed downwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is going to reverse from ascending to descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (1.9366). Merged Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have become a strong resistance level (1.9465).

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading around upper border of the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (1.7371). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1.9495).



The Technical Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler, an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

...
leer más
30 / 03 / 2018 | Noticias del mercado

Fundamental Analysis 30.03.2018 – Market Outlook

Market Recap

The stock market went up again yesterday Thursday 29th of March, with the S&P 500 index rising 1.4% and the NASDAQ up 1.6%. Yet USD was barely changed overall. It’s not clear whether the dollar’s performance has more to do with risk sentiment or just end-quarter book closing. As the graph shows, there’s no connection between the market’s view on risk (as measured by the Volatility Index (VIX) index) and the performance of the dollar. The dollar rose as uncertainty rose, but then stayed firm even as confidence returned to the stock markets and the VIX fell. 

JPY and CHF also rose. Since many of the world’s major trading centers are closed today Friday 30th of March for the Good Friday holiday, we won’t know for sure until next week, starting gradually on Monday 2nd of April (which is still a holiday in much of Europe) and then fully on Tuesday 3rd of April.

NZD was the best-performing G10 currency, perhaps because of a rally in agricultural commodities. The Bloomberg Agricultural subindex jumped 2.2% today. 

On the other hand, GBP was the worst performer, but with no clear trigger to the move except perhaps a continued fall in short-end yields, which may indicate fading confidence in a near-term rate hike. 

Today’s market

Because of the Good Friday holiday, there are no major indicators or speeches planned today.  

On Monday 2nd of April morning, the Bank of Japan releases its Q1 Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan, or Tankan as it’s universally known. This is probably the most important indicator out from Japan.

The diffusion indices for both large manufacturers and non-manufacturers are expected to decline slightly. The outlook for the next quarter on the other hand is expected to rise, but still, it’s expected to be lower than the current quarter. The figures are expected to imply that the Japanese economy has peaked for now. That could be negative for the yen.

The Forex (FX) market seems to pay more attention to the DI for large non-manufacturers than for manufacturers. The financial firms that are active in FX, such as the insurance and pension industry with their overseas investments, are not included in the survey.


The Fundamental Analysis are provided by Marshall Gittler, an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

...
leer más
30 / 03 / 2018 | Análisis técnico

Análisis Técnico 30.03.2018 – GBP/NZD: Ichimoku clouds

Veamos el gráfico de cuatro horas. Las líneas Tenkan-sen y Kijun-sen se unieron, las líneas se dirigen hacia abajo. La línea de confirmación Chikou Span se encuentra por debajo del gráfico de precios, la nube actual está por dar un vuelco de alcista a bajista. El instrumento se negocia por debajo de las líneas Tenkan-sen y Kijun-sen, siguiendo el movimiento descendente. El nivel estimado de soporte es uno de los mínimos anteriores de la línea Chinkou Span (1.9366). Las líneas Tenkan-sen y Kijun-sen sirven de un nivel fuerte de resistencia (1.9465).


En el gráfico diario la línea Tenkan-sen está por encima de Kijun-sen, la línea roja se dirige hacia arriba mientras que la línea azul permanece horizontal . La línea de confirmación Chikou Span se encuentra por encima del gráfico de precios, la nube actual – ascendente. El instrumento se negocia cerca del límite superior de la nube. El nivel próximo de soporte es el límite inferior de la nube (1.7371). El nivel próximo de resistencia es la línea Tenkan-sen (1.9495).


El Análisis Técnico es proporcionado por Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, una compañía analítica independiente. Los puntos de vista y opiniones expresados son explícitamente los del autor. Cualquier información contenida en el artículo, se cree que es fiable, y no ha sido verificada por STO y no se garantiza que sea exacta. Las referencias a productos específicos, son sólo con fines ilustrativos y no constituyen una forma de solicitud, recomendación o asesoramiento en materia de inversión. El rendimiento pasado no es una garantía de rendimiento futuro.
...
leer más
30 / 03 / 2018 | Noticias del mercado

Why central banks lower their interest rates during a financial crisis

After several years of enjoying increased economic growth, world economies were hit by a financial crisis in 2008. The United States (US) economy faced the first consequences from the burst of the subprime mortgage bubble, during which many home buyers defaulted on their mortgages. Large financial institutions in the US, such as Lehman Brothers, collapsed and many others, among them AIG and Merrill Lynch sought help from the US federal government in the form of a bailout. 

The financial crisis gave its place to the Great Recession of 2008-2012, as economists are used to calling it nowadays, and contributed to the development of the European sovereign-debt crisis. European Union economies such as Greece, Portugal, Cyprus and Ireland received aid packages to help them deal with the economic burden. Central banks scrambled to help local economies by changing their monetary policies and trying to make access to borrowing as easy as possible.

Central banks took action to fight recession

In December 2007, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) benchmark interest rate stood at 5.25%. The effect of the financial crisis that erupted in 2008 pressed the Fed’s chairman, at the time, Ben Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower the interest rate to 0.25% in December 2008. The European Central Bank (ECB) followed its US counterpart much later, by lowering its benchmark interest rate to 0% in March 2016 in a bid to revive the slow growing Eurozone economy. A similar action was taken by the Bank of England (BoE) which set its interest rate to the historic low of 0.25%, just after the Brexit referendum. 

Who benefits and who doesn’t from low interest rates

Low interest rates are helping to fuel the economy’s growth. Homeowners with a variable mortgage are the ones who earn more during low-rate periods because they get to see their monthly mortgage payments decrease, while their available budget is increasing. A pro-longed period of low interest rates, as the one that we experience, may also result in cheaper fixed-rate mortgages. Homeowners also benefit as the demand for houses increases and they are able to sell their homes at increased prices. 

Low interest rate periods don’t benefit savings deposits. This is because the average saver is getting a low interest rate for the money that he chose to hold in a bank account. In some cases, if the inflation rate is larger than the nominal interest rate, savers will see a fall in the real value of their savings. This is one of the reasons that stock market indices rise in periods of low interest rates since savers are looking for opportunities to get a better rate of return, instead of keeping their money in bank accounts. The influx of new funds in the stock market results in firms having larger available budgets for investments and new projects which could create new jobs and generate profits, even during a financial crisis. 

Central banks raising borrowing costs

Ten years after the first signs of an upcoming financial crisis and the recession that engulfed many world economies, central banks are beginning to consider raising their borrowing costs. Data coming from government statistical agencies around the world suggest that the global economy is back on track of growth, which pushes central banks’ governors to re-evaluate their monetary policy strategies. 

During 2017, the Fed proceeded in hiking its interest rates three times, adding one more in March 2018 with the benchmark interest rate set at 1.75%.  The Bank of England (BoE) hiked its benchmark interest rate for the first time in ten years in November 2017. Some of the ECB’s board members have expressed the opinion that the Eurozone’s central bank should consider picking up its borrowing costs, but the majority of the board still votes to keep the rates unchanged.   

Trading with STO

The global economy seems to be improving, taking into consideration the latest economic data releases coming from the US, the Eurozone and Japan. Traders should be ready to examine the new financial conditions and build the trading strategy that they find appropriate. STO gives its clients the chance to select from 5 account types and the opportunity to trade on 6 different asset classes and more than 300 CFD (Contracts for Difference) instruments. 

Trading Forex and CFDs, which are leveraged products, are high risk investments and puts your capital at risk. You may sustain a loss of some or all of your invested capital. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
...
leer más
29 / 03 / 2018 | Análisis técnico

Technical Analysis 29.03.2018 – AUD/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the blue line is directed upwards, while the red one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span has crossed the price chart from below, current cloud is descending. The instrument has entered the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (81.40). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (82.35). 



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (81.50). The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (82.48).


The Technical Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler, an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
...
leer más
29 / 03 / 2018 | Noticias de la compañía

STO in Africa Financial EXPO

Continuing its expansion into African markets, STO will be taking part in the Africa Financial Expo. The Africa Financial Expo will take place at Port Harcourt, Nigeria, on March 30th-31st 2018. The Africa Financial Expo is a 2-day event which brings together brokers from all around the world, giving investors and traders the opportunity to find out more about forex products and services. 

Open an STO Premium account during the Africa Financial Expo and get a 75% discount on account opening requirements

During the Africa Financial Expo, visitors who register with STO and open an STO Premium account are going to get a 75% discount on the minimum deposit requirements. STO Premium account clients benefit from spreads starting at 0.4 pips as well as 12 EAs and 15 chart indicators to help them implement their trading strategy. STO also provides negative balance protection and 24/5 customer service support.

Win a free funded STO Premium account during the Africa Financial Expo 

Visitors who register for STO’s raffle draw promotion during the Africa Financial Expo will also get the chance to win a free funded STO Premium account. STO’s raffle* will give   3 newly registered or existing STO clients the opportunity to get a free STO Premium account with US$500** credit. The raffle draw will be held at STO’s booth (B3-4), at 14.30, on March 31st 2018. 

* Terms and Conditions apply
** This amount is non-realisable funds, are for trading purposes only and cannot be withdrawn. Any profits made can however be withdrawn. 

This promotion is for clients of AFX Markets Ltd only. AFX Markets Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 560872, Company Number: 07612002).

Trading Forex and CFDs, which are leveraged products, are high risk investments and puts your capital at risk. You may sustain a loss of some or all of your invested capital. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose.
...
leer más
29 / 03 / 2018 | Noticias del mercado

Fundamental Analysis 29.03.2018 – Market Outlook

Market Recap

Wednesday 28th of March 2018 was a risk-on day, AUD increased and JPY and CHF fell. Gold and silver also fell. In this case, it looks like the risk was not stock markets, which ended the day little changed (DJIA) or lower (S&P 500) in the US, but rather geopolitical – it was reported that North Korea wants to hold a summit meeting with Japan. 

The biggest move though was that USD increased. That was mostly against a weaker JPY, which fell on the news of North Korea’s summit bid plus end-month flows. It may seem contradictory that a summit with North Korea, which could be good news for Japan in that it might reduce tensions in the region, would cause the currency to weaken, but lower tensions mean greater risk appetite among Japanese investors, and that usually means larger outflows.

The dollar was boosted by a higher-than-expected upward revision to Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was revised to +2.9% qoq SAAR from +2.5%, vs 2.7% expected. The growth data outweighed the negative news that the US trade gap was wider than expected in February 2018 and indeed was the widest for nine years despite an increase in exports. The US is likely to keep up the pressure on its trade partners and may continue with tariffs and other obstacles to free trade. 

Today’s market

First up today is the German consumer price index (CPI). The goal is the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), which is the national CPI measured the same way for Germany as it is for all the other EU countries. That won’t come out until later in the day. Before then, we get information for the CPIs for various lander, or states, the first of which is Saxony. There’s no forecast for Saxony, but it’s closely watched anyway, as the national CPI tends to go the same way anyway. Look for an acceleration in the inflation rate, because Easter falls early this year and so more of the price hikes for package holidays fell in March 2018 than usual. 

By the time it comes out, the German HICP is pretty well discounted and doesn’t have that much impact on the market. Nonetheless it could prove positive for the euro, since the German CPI figure is naturally a major component of the EU-wide CPI and is naturally a good indicator of what that figure is likely to be. 

There is also the German employment data. The fall in unemployment is expected to be less than average recently (the average for the last six months has been -22k) but the unemployment rate is expected to fall a notch to a record low. The market probably pays more attention to the change in the number of unemployed, if for no other reason than that that’s harder to predict and so more often comes in different than the actual figure. But in fact neither indicator is particularly closely correlated with subsequent movements in the FX rate. This should be neutral for EUR.

Next up is the big indicator of the day:  the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator and its sub-index, the core PCE deflator. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stated back in January 2012 that the PCE deflator was “most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate.” The things to watch here are how the mom rate of change of the PCE deflator and the yoy rate of change of the core deflator come in relative to estimates. The core deflator is more important, but as it doesn’t change very much, the market usually gets it right. In that case, attention will focus on the overall measure and any deviation from expectations there.

In this case, the core PCE deflator is expected to accelerate 10 bps to 1.6%, a little closer to the Fed’s 2% target. That could be positive for the dollar. 

The personal income and personal spending figures that come out at the same time are a big indicator for the US economy overall, as about 70% of GDP is related to consumption, but they’re relatively insignificant indicators for the FX market. In any case, income is expected to grow in line with the recent trend as job and wages continue to rise, but sluggish retail sales figures suggest that spending is likely to grow at the same weak rate as it did in the previous month of February 2018. This may be because people expected tax cuts and so increased their spending late last year. This could be negative for the USD. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve System (Fed) President Patrick Harker, a non-voting FOMC member, speaks on the economic outlook. There will be a Q&A. He said back in February 2018 that he has “penciled in two hikes for 2018.” However, that would mean his dot on the dot plot would’ve been at 1.875%, but there weren’t any dots there this time (as opposed to three back in December 2017). 

Overnight, Japan releases its end-of-month indicators, of which probably only the Tokyo CPI matters. Few Japanese indicators have an impact on USD/JPY. Japan started splitting out the Tokyo CPI and releasing it a week before they release the national CPI. When the two were released together, the market largely ignored the Tokyo CPI, but now that it comes out ahead of time, it may be seen as a leading indicator of the subsequent national CPI.

Today’s indicator is expected to show core inflation at the same rate as in the previous month of February 2018 and a small deceleration in headline inflation, which could be negative for JPY.  

The Japan unemployment rate seems to have a modest correlation with the subsequent movement of JPY. In this case too, an expected rise in the unemployment rate could also be negative for JPY. 

Note that the job-offers-to-applicants ratio, which comes out as part of the employment data, and also industrial production, which comes out shortly afterwards today Thursday 29th of March, doesn’t seem to have any significant correlation with the subsequent movement of the currency. 



The Fundamental Analysis are provided by Marshall Gittler, an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
...
leer más
29 / 03 / 2018 | Análisis técnico

Análisis Técnico 29.03.2018 – AUD/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Veamos el gráfico de cuatro horas. La línea Tenkan-sen está por encima de Kijun-sen, la azul se dirige hacia arriba mientras que la roja permanece horizontal. La línea de confirmación Chikou Span cruzó el gráfico de abajo hacia arriba, la nube actual – descendente. El instrumento entró en la nube. El nivel próximo de soporte es el límite inferior de la nube (81.40). El nivel próximo de resistencia es el límite superior de la nube (82.35).


En el gráfico diario la línea Tenkan-sen está por debajo de Kijun-sen, las líneas son horizontales. La línea de confirmación Chikou Span se encuentra por debajo del gráfico de precios, la nube actual – descendente. El instrumento se negocia entre las líneas Tenkan-sen y Kijun-sen. El nivel próximo de soporte es la línea Tenkan-sen (81.50). El nivel próximo de resistencia es la línea Kijun-sen (82.48).


El Análisis Técnico es proporcionado por Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, una compañía analítica independiente. Los puntos de vista y opiniones expresados son explícitamente los del autor. Cualquier información contenida en el artículo, se cree que es fiable, y no ha sido verificada por STO y no se garantiza que sea exacta. Las referencias a productos específicos, son sólo con fines ilustrativos y no constituyen una forma de solicitud, recomendación o asesoramiento en materia de inversión. El rendimiento pasado no es una garantía de rendimiento futuro.
...
leer más



Trading. Inspired. NEGOCIA AHORA CUENTA DEMO

Advertencia de riesgo: Los CFDs son instrumentos complejos y vienen con un alto riesgo de perder dinero rápidamente debido al apalancamiento. El 66.69% de las cuentas de inversores particulares pierden dinero al operar CFDs con AFX Capital Markets Ltd. El 66.36% de las cuentas de inversores particulares pierden dinero al operar CFDs con AFX Markets Ltd. Usted debe considerar si entiende cómo funcionan los CFDs y si puede darse el lujo de correr el riesgo de perder su dinero.

NEGOCIA AHORA CUENTA DEMO