30 / 11 / 2016 | Technikai Elemzés

EUR/GBP in bear mode, EUR/JPY in uptrend

The channel down for EUR/GBP does appear to be exhausted, with two break-outs having been seen on the upside. Look for moves out to resistance at 0.8590 and 0.8630 in the short term.



EUR/JPY is once again looking to establish an up-channel although resistance is to be anticipated around the 120.50 level, the 23.8% retracement of the December 2014-June 2016 sell-off. 



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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30 / 11 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

Bearish correction of USD/JPY with recent positive data from Japan

USD/JPY may be holding below recent highs, but the overnight release of some better than expected industrial production data from Japan has failed to lift sentiment for the Yen. There’s certainly some belief that the next big level we hit here will be back to 110 rather than out to 115 as the post-election run higher ought to be pausing for breath. The Yen could also benefit from inflows if wariness builds over the outlook for the Euro, but at least for now that’s not coming through. Any shortfall in US employment stats may give JPY an edge but again these prints seem unlikely to derail rate hike expectations, so the direct impact will be limited.
 
The big story today will be the Opec meeting that kicks off in Vienna, and the outcomes here should be relatively clear-cut. Either an agreement is reached to trim production quotas by member states – and possibly Russia too – in which case prices will rise, or otherwise if there’s no consensus, look for some potentially big drops on the downside. Critically, it’s the upside potential that is limited, on the basis that US shale producers can step in and fill the gap.
 
EUR/USD has retaken 1.06 with traders buying weakness ahead of this weekend’s Italian referendum. This could well be a short term move, with Mario Draghi saying that if the referendum leads to more market turmoil – which seems likely as the no campaign is ahead – then ECB bond buying will be stepped up. The fundamentals suggest that weakness will re-emerge here after the weekend break, although bear in mind that numbers such as Eurozone CPI (10am GMT today) could again give the common currency something to cheer in the short term.
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29 / 11 / 2016 | Technikai Elemzés

EUR/JPY breaks to downside, GBP/USD on hold

EUR/JPY did break lower from the up channel we had been following. It’s notable that the pair has failed to retake pre-Brexit highs and a longer term down channel from the spring remains in evidence, with a retest of August/September resistance at 116.40 now eyed. 



GBP/USD appears stuck in a defined range heading sideways and this is likely to be the case until we see more clarity over Article 50 rulings. Look for support at 1.2365 ad resistance at 1.2515. 



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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29 / 11 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

EUR/USD continues rally despite European uncertainty

EUR/USD is looking remarkably resilient, holding around the 1.06 level despite the uncertainty of the forthcoming Italian referendum this weekend. As noted yesterday, a “no” vote is the expected outcome and this could rattle the country’s struggling banks who are seeking recapitalisation. There’s a whole raft of low level economic data due for release from the Eurozone this morning, but little here seems to have the potential to provide much momentum for the currency. Critically, the low inflation outlook for Europe vs the US – something that should be confirmed in the Eurozone CPI print at 1pm GMT today - could act as something of a buffer for the pair in the medium term – although whether that’s sufficient to keep a test of parity in check is a hotly debated point.
 
The Yen continues to trend lower in the wake of last week’s attempt to test 114.00. Again this is being driven by a technical reversion, with the turning point correlating with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May ’11 to June ’15 rally. Risk aversion may help drive the pair lower still, although a short term test much below 110 - given the backdrop of fundamentals we currently have on offer – would remain something of a challenge.
 
AUD/USD continues to march higher too, maintaining the trend that got underway at the start of last week and is supported by the underlying rise in commodity prices. The next big driver here however is likely to be off the back of the Chinese PMI releases on Thursday and again if we see a continuation of the growth pattern here then a drift towards fresh highs for the year would be of little surprise.
 
A note on GBP which remains somewhat scuttled although the rising inflation outlook and uncertainty of next week’s legal challenge over Brexit could well serve to act as something of a brake on the currency for a while longer, yet. UK PMI data on Thursday and Friday however does have the ability to give sterling something of a shot in the arm in the near term.
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28 / 11 / 2016 | Technikai Elemzés

EUR/JPY continues in up trend, USD/CHF stalled

EUR/JPY is still holding the channel up. A break lower was attempted during the Asian session and although this failed, a retest on the downside remains possible. 



The greenback’s reversion has seen USD/CHF fail to test resistance at the year’s highs of 1.0250, and we’re now looking for support around the 0.9950 mark.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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28 / 11 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

EUR/USD rallies with news from French Presidential race

Last night’s Conservative party run-off in the French Presidential race does appear to have given the Euro something to cheer after the more mainstream of the two candidates – Francois Fillon – won the nomination. EUR/USD and EUR/GBP have both risen markedly, although it’s worth bearing in mind that we were starting from an oversold position and when it comes to short term financial risk, the Italian referendum next weekend potentially has far more bearing on the common currency in the short term. Bookmakers have the “no” vote ahead by some margin – a scenario that will see PM Renzi out and a protracted period of uncertainty for domestic banks. The Financial Times reports that as many as eight institutions could fail – any apparent support for EUR could easily be seen as temporary.
 
The USD/JPY rally appears to be running out of steam, with a retracement in US bond yields finally putting the pair under a degree of pressure. The cross was looking increasingly oversold last week, with opinion divided as to whether we should be expecting a move out to beyond 115 or a reversion back to 110 and we do now appear to have found a catalyst here. We do however have a relatively light day ahead in terms of economic data, so markets could struggle to find much meaningful direction as a result and with that imminent US rate hike, something of a reversion here would be no surprise.
 
The one stand out on today’s economic calendar is Mario Draghi appearing before European lawmakers, which is scheduled for 2pm GMT. Hints as to whether QE needs to be extended may be on the table, although any comments over the Italian referendum will perhaps be of more interest in the short term. With this overhang, even the best-case prognosis for the Euro is looking rather lacklustre and any overt concerns here could easily send EUR/USD back towards recent lows.
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25 / 11 / 2016 | Technikai Elemzés

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY in an up trend

The descending triangle on EUR/USD has in the last hour broken out on the upside although given light data flows and thinner volumes, this remains a pair worth watching. A return to the established range would be of little surprise given the prospect of a US rate hike. 



The Yen may have stalled against the dollar, but EUR/JPY remains very much in line for that channel up we have highlighted previously. The situation remains that the risk is weighted on the upside, although more Euro strength is needed before we can start thinking about a break out.  



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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25 / 11 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

Dollar stalling as Yen gains momentum

So yet again we’re kicking off with USD/JPY which has seen some pronounced volatility in the last hour or so. We had a raft of Japanese economic data released overnight and it wasn’t any worse than had been forecast, but the lacklustre inflation print was clearly sufficient to point out that the Bank of Japan is still struggling engineer the economy, leading to initial downside pressure for the Yen. However – and this could be a consequence of thinner holiday volumes – we are now seeing a reversion and the pair is testing territory below 113. More volatility is inevitable here but there’s a reluctance to push higher at any cost. 
 
The run lower for EUR/USD appears to be stalling although a general absence of fundamentals does appear to have left traders somewhat sidelined. We do have a number of low-level releases from member states this morning, but as with the yen, the real driver here is the prospect of a US rate hike when inflation in the Eurozone remains so lacking. As already noted however, given the general absence of economic data today and the potential for thin volumes, we could well see some atypical price behaviour in the short term, with otherwise well established trends taking a break until next week.
 
The oil price could serve up some interesting momentum in the short term with next week’s Opec summit now looming. Continued oversupply is being compounded by a strong dollar, which is serving to push crude prices lower despite optimism that a deal will be struck to reign in production. However whether the scale of any move like this will be sufficient remains to be seen so any renewed wariness over the outlook here could open up the way for crude to slide back to the low $40’s.
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24 / 11 / 2016 | Technikai Elemzés

EUR/USD in descending triangle, EUR/JPY in an up trend

The descending triangle that has been forming on EUR/USD since before Trump won the race for the White House has broken through previous support levels and the prospect of the pair reaching parity in the New Year seems increasingly likely as uncertainty over the French elections heaps pressure on the European model. 



Despite Euro weakness, EUR/JPY has been holding a steady up channel for the last two weeks and this trade remains very much in play. Even with EUR uncertainty, the Yen looks the weaker play here and 120 – a level not seen since before the Brexit vote – is the key target. 



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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24 / 11 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

USD/JPY in focus while others majors remain stagnant

USD/JPY has once again put in an eye-catching performance over the last few hours with the pair pushing out to 113.00 off the back of some significantly better than expected US durable goods order data. Although we saw a modest reversion, Japanese manufacturing PMI data fell short of expectations too, underlining the idea that inflation is still proving hard to come by – something that will likely be confirmed when we see CPI data released this evening at 11.30pm GMT. Whether the pair can drift as far as the 115-120 range that some have suggested could be tested by the year end remains to be seen.
 
The Aussie dollar has given up some of its gains over the greenback although AUD/USD remains stuck in a defined channel between the 28% and 50% Fibonacci retracements for the year-to-date range. There’s little data out that is likely to provide meaningful direction for either currency here ahead of the weekend break, so the tracking sideways is the most likely outcome, unless we see another surge in base metals prices.
 
We have the second revision to the UK Q3 GDP number due at 9.30am GMT. This will have the potential to provide some direction for sterling crosses although with the Pound having already been bolstered by yesterday’s Autumn statement, the risk here for sterling could be greater on the downside. EUR/GBP has comprehensively pushed below 0.8500 – even with the uncertainty of Brexit, the country’s economy is still being forecast to grow as quick as that of Germany.
 
We have inflation and interest rate readings due at 9.30am GMT and 1pm GMT respectively from South Africa, so this could offer some direction on USD/ZAR, especially given the fact thinner volumes over the Thanksgiving break could serve to bolster volatility. The pair is currently trading around the middle of the year’s range and there’s no real expectation that interest rates will be changed, but with the economy weakening – it’s at its lowest ebb since 2009 – the longer term risk here is for a push back towards the 16’s we saw tested at the start of the year. 
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