31 / 05 / 2018 | Technikai Elemzés

Technical Analysis 31.05.2018 – EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument has broken through Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line (126.55). The closest resistance level is the upper border of the cloud (128.60).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the blue line is directed downwards, while the red one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (125.40). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (127.95).


The Technical Analysis is provided by Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
...
további információ
31 / 05 / 2018 | Piaci Hírek

Fundamental Analysis 31.05.2018 – Market Outlook

Market Recap
The market decided that the big fear over Italy was overdone yesterday after the country successfully completed 5- and 10-year bond sales. Both auctions were oversubscribed, with higher bid-to-cover ratios than at the previous auction.



As a result, markets reversed most of the spread widening that had taken place the previous day. That is, for Spain and Portugal, spreads narrowed back to slightly less than they were on Monday 28th of May, before Tuesday’s 29th of May 2018 big panic. Italian and Greek spreads also fell back, but remain wider than on Monday. This shows some less panic, more thinking – these are after all the countries that are having problems, not Spain and Portugal, which are well on their way to economic recovery.

Note how the Italian two-year bond spread had gone from being much narrower than the 10-year spread to suddenly being wider, but is now back to being narrower. (2yr was 157 bps over Germany on Monday vs 234 bps for the 10y year; 353 bps over vs 290 bps on Tuesday; and now back to 235 bps vs 254 bps.) Two-year yields had soared 186 bps on Tuesday but fell back 107 bps yesterday 30th of May 2018. Amazing volatility! This indicates that people see the Italian crisis as a relatively short-term phenomenon – they’re more worried about the next two years than the next ten.



Political developments are the driving force behind the market relief. President Sergio Mattarella and his designated Prime Minister, Carlo Cottarelli, are trying to find some agreement on a new government that would enable the country to avoid another general election. Five Star Movement’s leader, Luigi Di Maio, appears willing to nominate a finance minister who won’t try to take Italy out of the euro, which is a big relief too. Of course, all political developments are subject to change without notice.

USD was the worst-performing currency. It’s noticeable that it did even worse than the supposed safe-haven JPY and CHF, even though one might have imagined that the return of a “risk on” environment would have hurt those currencies even more.

The economic news in the US was mixed. On the one hand, Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised down and the ADP report missed expectations. If Q1 GDP isn’t revised back up, then the US will need to average 3% growth for the rest of the year in order to hit the market and the Federal Reserve System (Fed’s) expectations of 2.8% growth for the year as a whole. That’s likely to be tough. A downward revision to growth expectations  is likely to bring a downward revision to rate expectations too, and that’s likely to weigh on the dollar. On the other hand, the Beige Book was relatively upbeat – it said manufacturing “shifted into higher gear” and “many firms” raised wages to attract workers --  and the US trade deficit narrowed slightly.

Having said that, it was noticable that the dollar lost ground yesterday even though US bond yields rose. This suggests to me that much of the recent strength of the dollar was a reflection of the US’ position as “safe haven of last resort,” not just higher yields. Also, the trade issue is flaring up again, which is likely to pressure USD further. The split between US President Donald Trump’s trade negotiators with China came out in the open after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro criticized Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s recent comment that  the US-China trade war was “on hold.” It was that comment that calmed down sentiment around the trade issue. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that the US is likely to implement tariffs on European steel and aluminum, which is sure to worsen relations there too.

CAD was the best performing currency after the Bank of Canada came out with a relatively hawkish statement. Although they left rates unchanged as was uniformly expected, they said that “…developments since April 2018 further reinforce Governing Council’s view that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target.” As a result, expectations for a rate hike at the July 2018 meeting have risen to 76% from 53% the day before the meeting. CAD looks likely to undergo a fundamental rethink based on this view, although oil prices have the potential to put downward pressure the currency if they fall further. Watch for Bank of Canada Deputy Governor  Sylvain Leduc’s speech tonight (see below).



Today’s market

We get an update on the targeted inflation rates of both the EU and the US today.

First we get the EU-wide Consumer Price Index (CPI). Following yesterday’s much-higher-than-expected German harmonized CPI (+0.6% mom vs +0.3% expected, +2.2% yoy vs +1.8% expected, 1.4% previous), expectations are that today’s EU-wide CPI may beat expectations too, if that makes sense. The market is looking for EU-wide CPI to rise 1.6% yoy. But given the higher-than-expected German CPI, and assuming France and Italy hit their consensus estimates, all other EU countries could see zero mom rise in prices and the EU-wide inflation rate could accelerate to 1.9% to 2.0%, which would put it right at the European Central Banks (ECB’s) target of “close to, but below, 2%.” 

Of course that’s the headline number, which has been inflated by the recent rise in Brent prices and the resultant rise in gasoline prices in Europe. Core German CPI isn’t released at the same time so we don’t know how that performed. 

It’s not clear though whether higher inflation would be good or bad for the euro. Expectations are shifting towards the ECB delaying the end of its Quantitative easing (QE) program because of the turmoil in Italy. If inflation hits the target, then it may make for a more difficult decision. Probably the market wouldn’t want to see the ECB backing off its purchases, or even its rhetoric, while the Italy crisis is under way – higher Italian yields are a flashing red “sell euro” signal.



Then later in the day we get what should be the most important indicator of the month:  the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflators. These are even more important than the nonfarm payrolls, because the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has already met its employment mandate – the unemployment rate is well below what it believes is the long-term rate of unemployment, 4.5%. However, it’s still waiting to see if it meets its other target, 2% inflation, and the PCE is the inflation gauge that it uses, not the CPI. So whether the PCE comes in “close to 2%,” as they said after their last meeting, or at 2% or even maybe above 2% is the other shoe left to drop.

In this case, the shoe isn’t expected to fit. The headline PCE deflator is expected to remain at 2.0%, which will be another month at that level, but the rate of  growth of the core PCE deflator, which most analysts assume is their real target, is forecast to slow slightly to 1.8% yoy. That still qualifies as “close to” 2%, but given their focus at their last meeting on a “symmetric 2% objective,” meaning allowing overshoots as well as undershoots, close to isn’t good enough. A slowdown in the core PCE deflator could be negative for USD.



The PCE deflators are of course part of the personal income & personal spending data. These are played up in the press as more important, and they may well be for the stock market, but they aren’t particularly big for the FX market. And this month they’re likely to be even less important, as they’re both expected to grow at exactly the same pace as the month before. Income would be at +0.3% mom for the third month in a row – This could be neutral for USD.



Canada Q1 GDP is a bit confusing. Canada does a monthly GDP figure as well as a quarterly one. The monthly series is expected to slow slightly from the previous month, but the quarterly series is forecast to accelerate from the previous quarter. Just to make things even more interesting, the monthly data has a year-on-year change too, and that’s expected to be unchanged at the previous month’s growth rate of 3.0%.

A lot will depend on the composition of growth. If the small slowdown in growth in March 2018 was due to weak external demand, but domestic demand remains strong then the market should overlook the drop and the figure could likely be considered positive for CAD.



Luckily we should be able to get an expert assessment of the GDP data just a few hours later when Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc will speak on “Economic Progress Report.” Coming a day after the Bank of Canada’s meeting, her comments will be closely watched for more detailed explanation of their optimistic view on the outlook. An upbeat assessment could be the impetus for a further rise in CAD.
 
US pending home sales is an erratic series. It’s hard to see any trend here. Nonetheless, if the April 2018 figure comes in slightly higher than the March 2018 figure, as the market expects, it could be taken as another sign that the housing market isn’t being affected by higher interest rates. This could be positive for the dollar.



Atlanta Federal Reserve System (Fed) President Raphael Bostic speaks in a moderated Q&A, but since he just spoke on Tuesday 29th of May 2018 and last week as well, I doubt if he’ll say anything new or market-affecting.

Federal Reserve System (Fed) Governor Lael Brainard’s speech however is much more important. She’s a voting member who hasn’t spoken in a while. When she last talked about monetary policy, a little over a month ago, she said the outlook was consistent with “continued gradual increases” in the Fed funds rate. Several Fed officials have recently reaffirmed their expectations for three hikes. This may be the last opportunity before the June 2018 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for a Fed official to signal a shift to expecting four hikes, if indeed she does.

Overnight, Japan announces its capital spending figures. They’re expected to be slightly softer, which would go along with the recent downturn in growth in Japan. The data could be modestly negative for JPY, unless of course it sends the stock market lower, in which case it could be positive for JPY regardless of what the actual macroeconomic implications are.



Finally, the Caixin China manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is expected to rise one tic. This compares with the official manufacturing PMI, released overnight, which was up a surprisingly strong 0.5 point to 51.9 (51.4 expected).

The Fundamental Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler who is an external service provider of Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
...
további információ
30 / 05 / 2018 | Technikai Elemzés

Technical Analysis 30.05.2018 – AUD/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed downwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (81.29). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (81.85).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is crossing Kijun-sen from above, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span has crossed the price chart from above, current cloud has reversed from descending to ascending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (81.11). The closest resistance level is the upper border of the cloud (82.26).




The Technical Analysis is provided by Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

...
további információ
30 / 05 / 2018 | Piaci Hírek

Fundamental Analysis 30.05.2018 – Market Outlook

Market Recap

The Italian crisis is spreading out to be a Eurozone crisis. Italian bond yields soared further yesterday Tuesday 29th of May 2018, but that’s only half the story – note how spreads on Portuguese and Greek bonds are also being affected. This is contagion and it spells trouble for the Eurozone and the euro. While you could argue that Spain is having its own political problems and therefore the spread widening there is justified, there’s nothing new in Portugal or Greece – just worries about the cohesion of the Eurozone if the anti-EU parties turn the repeat election into a referendum on Italy’s membership of the euro.



It is unlikely that Italy is leaving the euro any time soon, nor are any of the other countries who are seen to be in peril. While people may be angry at the EU, they realize that leaving the common currency would be a big deal. The euro is a more concrete to people than Brexit was, because while the average person in Britain may not have a particularly realistic feel for how the EU affects their day-to-day life, everyone can see the euros in their pockets.

Since the euro was established, support for the single currency has remained above 50% in these countries most of the time, except for Greece. Notice in particular how support is rising (and, in the next graph, opposition is falling) in Spain and Portugal, two countries that were crushed by the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. 







Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) can’t announce an end to its bond-buying program while peripheral bond prices are collapsing. And if they can’t end the bond-buying program, they can’t lift interest rates. So the crisis has an impact on expected euro interest rates and hence EUR/USD as well.

Of course, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) would also be reluctant to move while global markets are in turmoil. We’ve seen that before in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements; during times of upset like this, they put a lot of emphasis on the global picture, not just the domestic US economy, in making their decision. That’s probably why expectations of four rate hikes in the US this year are collapsing. The market now sees two rate hikes – i.e., only one more rate hike – as just as likely as three, which was previously seen as probably the minimum.



US bond yields are collapsing – 10-year yields are now where five-year yields were last Thursday 24th of May 2018.

 



But lower US yields aren’t hurting the dollar much, because A) USD is the alternative to EUR, and EUR is hurt much worse, plus B) bond yields everywhere are falling, except of course for peripheral Europe. Bund yields are falling even more than Treasuries as people selling peripheral Europe pile into core Europe.



Meanwhile, stock prices are collapsing around the world too.

It only adds to the risk-off mood that US President Donald Trump said he would go ahead and impose tariffs on $50bn of Chinese imports and curb investment in sensitive technology.

Today’s market – main events

Bank of Canada day! Currently, the market is forecasting a 63% probability of a rate hike in July 2018, and sees two or three more hikes this year as the most likely scenario (that’s the blue and red lines). 

After the recent weak economic data, including slowing inflation, they may be a bit cautious. Some indicators have improved, such as trade and retail sales, but overall it remains disappointing. Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to show an improvement in growth, but that will come a day too late for the meeting.

Perhaps most importantly though, with the increasing uncertainty of a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) deal, I think they are likely to repeat the line from the April 2018 meeting about “escalating geopolitical and trade conflicts.” I expect the probability of three rate hikes this year to subside, with negative implications for the CAD.

The other major point today is the ADP employment report. Automated Data Processing Inc. (ADP) is an outsourcing company that handles about one-fifth of the private payrolls in the US, so its client base is a pretty sizeable sample of the US labor market as a whole. One point to note: its figures are adjusted to match the final estimate of the nonfarm payrolls (NFP), not the initial estimate that we get this Friday 1st of June 2018. So while they are one of the best guides to the NFP that we have, they aren’t perfect by any means – in fact, neither is the NFP figure itself, since it’s always revised.

In any event, the market consensus is for a solid 190k rise, which although below the recent trend would still be a healthy number indeed – the 2017 average was 185k, so this would still be an acceleration after all these years of steady growth in employment. The “whisper” number on Bloomberg isn’t far off at 195k, suggesting no major difference between traders and economists.

 

We also get the German Consumer Price Index (CPI), a closely watched indicator of tomorrow’s EU-wide CPI. Inflation is expected to accelerate notably in Germany as well as in the EU as a whole. Part of the rise though is just an optical illusion arising from the difference in the timing of the Easter and Pentecost holidays this year and last year, so it’s not clear whether the ECB will take it into account at its 14 June 2018 meeting or whether they will want to wait to see the next month’s data. Nonetheless, market participants don’t always take these kinds of technical details into account, so the figure could be positive for the Euro.

Today’s market – other

The German unemployment data comes out fairly early. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at its historically low level – the data only goes back to 1991, but just for comparison, before the Global Financial Crisis the lowest it got down to was 7.3% in 1991, vs today’s 5.3%. The fall number of unemployed persons is expected to fall by much less than is usual nowadays, but with leading indices of employment, such as hiring intentions and vacancies, still pointing to continued growth in employment. This could be neutral for EUR.

The second estimate of US Q1 GDP is forecast to be unchanged from the previous estimate at 2.3% qoq SAAR. However, looking at past several years, we can see that eight out of the last 10 quarters it was revised up. Moreover, this time around upward revisions to core retail sales data for February and March 2018 suggest that consumption may have grown more than was figured into the initial calculation.

However, the record for Q1, which still apparently has some particular problems with seasonal adjustment, isn’t so consistent over the last several years. In fact the two biggest downward revisions occurred in Q1, albeit some time ago. There could well be a surprise in these figures.



 

The US advance goods trade balance is expected to show a widening in the trade deficit relative to the previous month, but still a narrower-than-trend figure. I expect people will look at the data and figure that March 2018 was a fluke and the deficit is widening out again, which could be negative for the dollar, particularly in today’s political atmosphere.

The Fed releases the “Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions,” aka The Beige Book as always two weeks before the next FOMC meeting. It’s significant for the market because the first paragraph of the statement following each FOMC meeting tends to mirror the tone of the Beige Book's characterization of the economy. 

Overnight, China announces its official purchasing managers indices (as opposed to those calculated by Caixin/Markit). Both the manufacturing and the service-sector indices are expected to be unchanged from the previous month. They are both in expansionary territory, although the manufacturing one is less so than the service-sector index. Continuing that expansion could be modestly positive for risk-sensitive currencies, such as AUD. In any event, no change = no change.



Australian private sector credit is forecast to grow at a slightly slower pace than in the previous month as tighter lending conditions restrict the growth in housing loans. The mom turnout is forecast to be pretty much in line with the recent figures, although down one tic from the previous month. That will lead to a slight decline in the yoy figure, but still above the recent low. AUD-neutral.

 
The Fundamental Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler who is an external service provider of Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

...
további információ
29 / 05 / 2018 | Technikai Elemzés

Technical Analysis 29.05.2018 – EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the blue line is directed downwards, while the red one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (126.81). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (127.68).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (126.39). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (129.07).



The Technical Analysis is provided by Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
...
további információ
28 / 05 / 2018 | Technikai Elemzés

Technical Analysis 28.05.2018 – AUD/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud has reversed from ascending to descending. The instrument has entered the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (82.80). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (83.40).




Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is crossing the price chart from below, current cloud has reversed from descending to ascending. The instrument has entered the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (82.66). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (83.05).



The Technical Analysis is provided by Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
...
további információ
28 / 05 / 2018 | Piaci Hírek

Fundamental Analysis 28.05.2018 – Market Outlook

Market Recap
Chaos in Italy as the Prime Minister resigns almost before taking office! The premier-designate Guiseppe Conte on Sunday 28th of May met with President Sergio Mattarella and handed back his mandate for forming a new government. The issue was the finance minister. The coalition wanted to name someone who’s in favor of leaving the euro. President Mattarella has to approve the Prime Minister and all ministers, but he refused to sign off on the finance minister. Now there’s talk that leaders of the Five Star Movement may try to impeach President Matterella. It looks like the President may appoint an interim government while the parties prepare for new elections. A former International Monetary Fund (IMF) official is being mentioned as a possible interim Prime Minister (PM).

Meanwhile in Spain, the no-confidence motion that the largest opposition party filed on Friday 25th of May will be considered by the other parties today. Apparently the other parties all have a variety of demands and might not agree to support the motion. Recent opinion polls show that they have little to gain from new elections, so they may prefer the status quo to the possibility of losing seats in a new election.

It looks like chaos, but from the market’s point of view, the worst-case scenario of a euro-skeptic Italy has been avoided. The euro is actually up as a result, rising from a low of 1.1646 on Friday afternoon to 1.1715 this morning. We could see continued EUR strength today as these events offer the possiblity of a more settled future, rather than just a descent into chaos.

Oil collapsed after Russia and Saudi Arabia said they want the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting next month to discuss suspending its output restrictions. The Saudi energy minister said there were proposals to increase production by some 300 kb/d-800 kb/d, with Saudi Arabia favoring the low end and Russia favoring the high end. Russian President Putin said the country was happy with oil at $60/bbl, substantially below current levels. (Brent was $79.42 on Thursday 24th of May, before this talk began.)

The other OPEC countries however don’t see any upside in this for them. Most are producing at their limit anyway; only Russia and Saudi Arabia have room to increase production. In theory those two countries could just boost production unilaterally, but OPEC rules say the group has to agree. To win the agreement of the others and also to make up for a long period of low prices, it is expected that the group will probably want to keep the supply/demand balance relatively tight, which means leaning more towards the lower increases that the Saudis prefer. Under that scenario, prices would probably fall modestly but still remain well supported above $50/bbl. Raising output by 800 kb/d, as Russia prefers, would probably mean an oversupplied market eventually and send prices materially lower.

Oil prices are expected to continue their slide, particularly WTI, as US production is rising and inventories, which have come down a lot, have started rising again. The Brent/WTI spread, now at its widest level of the year, could widen out even further.
Lower oil prices and continuing fears over North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) sent CAD down sharply. In this uncertain environment, one could expect a dovish Bank of Canada statement on Wednesday 23rd of May that could cause investors to reconsider their interest rate expectations and push the currency lower still.




NZD, AUD and JPY were generally higher as it appears that the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un may be back on. US stock futures gained in early trading. New Zealand announced plans to eradicate a cattle disease that’s been troubling the country’s important dairy sector, but this was announced well after NZD began shooting up. A surge in Chinese industrial profits – up 21.9% yoy in April vs +3.1% in March 2018 – may have also boosted sentiment for these currencies, although again this news too came out after the surge began.

USD was also higher despite US interest rates being lower across the curve. The US currency seems to have momentum behind it.

The weak GBP is to some degree the counterpart of a stronger EUR, as a lot of EUR positioning recently has been through EUR/GBP. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will go to Brussels this week to meet with EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier. There’s increasing concern that Scotland could vote to break away from the UK and remain in the EU if and when Britain leaves the EU. Separately, it appears that the UK Electoral Commission has  set aside GBP 829,000 for a European Parliament election that’s scheduled to take place eight weeks after Brexit is supposed to occur.

Commitment of Traders Report

Investors continue to trim their USD shorts and EUR longs. They are modestly long the DXY index and modestly short JPY. Still long GBP suggests that there’s plenty of room for them to sell the beleaguered British currency, though. CHF shorts increased, as did CAD and NZD.

Speculators decreased their long WTI positions a little, but there’s lots of room to cut further there as OPEC considers cutting its output.



Today’s market

The only point of interest during the European and US day is the three Italian note auctions. These are all reopenings of existing issues. It will be a good guide to whether people see the recent rise in Italian yields as an opportunity or a warning.
 
It’s noticeable that even with all its problems, Italian 10-year yields are still lower than US 10-year yields!




Overnight, the Japanese unemployment rate does seem significant for the yen, but with the rate expected to stay unchanged, the small rise in the job-offers-to-applicants ratio may go unnoticed. This could be neutral for JPY.



 
The Fundamental Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler who is an external service provider of Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
...
további információ
25 / 05 / 2018 | Technikai Elemzés

Technical Analysis 25.05.2018 – EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument has been corrected to the Tenkan-sen line. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (128.03). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (128.33).

 

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed downwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (128.03). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (129.54).



The Technical Analysis is provided by Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

...
további információ
25 / 05 / 2018 | Piaci Hírek

Fundamental Analysis 25.05.2018 – Market Outlook

Market Recap

Modest movements in most currencies, especially considering the surprising news that US President Donald Trump is calling off his meeting with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. US stocks closed down slightly but well off the lows, while Tokyo stocks are higher this morning and South Korea down only by a small amount, so the move clearly isn’t disturbing the world that much. 

The only currency showing a notable move was CAD,  which plunged on Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on US auto imports under US national security grounds. A spokesman for Canada’s foreign minister said it was “inconceivable” that Canada would pose “any kind of security threat to the US.” Mexico is actually the #1 exporter of autos to the US, followed by Canada. 

Oil was down after Russia's energy minister Alexander Valentinovich Novak said that at their Tuesday 22nd of June 2018 meeting, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would discuss reversing the group’s production curbs and increasing output to compensate for falling production in Venezuela and the loss of global supply caused by new US sanctions on Iran. Libya also recently announced that it would curb production by 120k bbl/day because of power shortages. All this is pushing prices up to levels that OPEC fears will dampen long-term demand for oil, so they want to keep prices from rising further.

UK retail sales were much better than expected (+1.6% mom vs +0.9% expected, -1.1% previous). It didn’t help the pound much however, which suggests that sentiment for the British currency remains weak as politics dominate. 

Today’s market

The day starts with the Ifo indices for May 2018. They’re expected to be down just marginally, really nothing major at all, considering that the current assessment hit a record high in February 2018 and the business climate hit a record high last November (the data goes back to 2005). This compares with Wednesday’s 23rd of May 2018 German Purchasing Manager's Index (PMIs), which fell more than expected (albeit also remaining at a fairly high level). I think this indication that activity is stabilizing at a relatively high level would be taken as good news for Germany and the euro.



UK Finance housing loans are forecast to continue their recent decline. There was an upsurge in January 2018, but since then they’ve been coming back down steadily, resuming the decline that started a few months before the Brexit vote. This should be negative for GBP.

The second estimate of Britain’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rarely brings any revision to the main figures, just details about the composition of the figures.

  

The big indicator of the day is US durable goods. The headline figure, which is the one that the FX market usually focuses on, is expected to fall on a mom basis, but that’s entirely due to the big aircraft orders in the previous month. Excluding transportation, it’s expected to show a decent rise, which should reinforce expectations of +3.0% or so GDP growth in Q2 and therefore could be positive for the dollar.

 

The Sveriges Riksbank – Sweden’s central bank – is 350 years old this year, the oldest central bank in the world. It’s holding a commemorative conference today. The conference is in two parts:  the morning is for a Swedish audience and the afternoon is aimed at an international audience. The afternoon session will feature a panel discussion with Federal Reserve System (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, Bank of England Governor John Carney, European Central Bank (ECB) Board member Coeure, plus Bank of International Settlements (BIS) General Manager Agustin Carstens. There’s some disagreement though on what the panel discussion will be about. The Riksbank’s web site says:  Panel discussion: The future of central banking? But the Fed’s web site says Panel Discussion:  Financial Stability and Central Bank Transparency.  

Later in the day, Dallas Fed President Robert Steven Kaplan,  Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speak on a panel discussion on “Technology-Enabled Disruption:  Implications for Business, Labor Markets and Monetary Policy” at the Dallas Fed.



The Fundamental Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler who is an external service provider of Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
...
további információ
24 / 05 / 2018 | Technikai Elemzés

Technical Analysis 24.05.2018 – AUD/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span has crossed the price chart from above, current cloud is going to reverse from ascending to descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (82.76). The closest resistance level is the upper border of the cloud (83.30).

 

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span has crossed the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line (82.77). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (83.05).



The Technical Analysis is provided by Claws and Horns (Cyprus) Limited, an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

...
további információ



Kockázati Figyelmeztetés:  A CFD-k összetett instrumentumok és a gyors pénz vesztésnek magas kockázatával rendelkeznek a tőkeáttételnek köszönhetően.67.56%-a a retail ügyfeleknek pénzt veszít, amikor CFD-vel kereskednek az AFX Capital Markets Ltd-nél. 68.77%-a a retail ügyfeleknek pénzt veszít, amikor CFD-vel kereskednek az AFX Markets Ltd-nél. Fontolja meg, hogy teljesen megérti hogyan működnek a CFD-k és, hogy megengedheti-e magának a pénze elvesztésének kockázatát.

KERESKEDJEN MOST KOCKÁZATMENTES DEMÓ