26 / 05 / 2017 | Новости рынка

Slowing UK economic growth rattles pound

A handful of trades have been closed in the last 24hrs with some modest profits off short GBP. Long Euro is also yielding results but a short US index trade continues to drag on performance.
 
Daily Round up
 
We have a relatively quiet end to the week with economic data centred very much around releases that are expected from the US. There may be a temptation to derisk some positions with a number of key markets closed on Monday too, whilst any policy developments from the G7 meeting which is convening in Sicily today could again cause a degree of volatility.
 

Fundamental Analysis – Slowing UK economic growth rattles pound

 
Sterling fell back across the board yesterday morning after UK Q1 GDP was revised lower, pushing cable back to levels not seen in 10 days whilst EUR/GBP found highs last tested almost two months ago. There’s very little of note due for release from the UK today so further direction is likely to be seen off the back of the mounting array of risk that’s facing the economy. The upcoming election is likely to be closer than had first been imagined as the incumbent Conservative party see their ratings fall, whilst the Brexit negotiations also provide another slug of uncertainty for the market.
 
There’s a run of high profile prints due from the US today including GDP revisions, durable goods orders and the Michigan consumer sentiment reading. With EUR/USD having given up some of its recent gains, any weakness here could be sufficient to drive the common currency back above the 1.1250 level and towards recent highs. There may be some questions over the timing of any tapering from the ECB but with the June meeting less than two weeks away, some posturing ahead of this is to be expected.
 
Opec released its verdict over production quota cuts yesterday and although this was essentially as expected, the market has given the news a rather cool reception, with the underlying price of WTI crude crashing straight back through the $50 level. This reflects the fact that the cut isn’t going to make much of an impression on the uplift in US shale oil production, although with storage space across the Atlantic running thin on the ground, this once again flags the idea of trading the Brent-WTI spread as being a potentially useful strategy in the coming months. 
 
Note that markets will be closed in the US, UK and China on Monday.
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice
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26 / 05 / 2017 | Технический анализ

Gold set to find more favour?

XAU/USD is looking primed to continue its latest run higher with a move up to the 61.8% retracement of last year’s sell off at $1280 then recent highs near $1300 looking likely.
 

 
GBP/USD looking exposed on the downside with recent lows of 1.2845 likely to provide some resistance, although a push down to 1.2780 may follow.
 

 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice
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25 / 05 / 2017 | Новости рынка

No support for dollar off FOMC

Our prop desk has taken on little fresh exposure in the last 24 hours. Some long cable positions continue to yield results but short US equity index trades are still sitting well out of the money.
 
Daily Round up
 
We have a relatively quiet couple of days running into the weekend break as far as the typical economic data is concerned, although Moody’s downgrade on China this morning is a timely reminder of the risks of mounting debt in the country and the expected Opec verdict over cuts to oil production quotas being extended will also be under scrutiny.
 

Fundamental Analysis– No support for dollar off FOMC

 
With perhaps a slightly hawkish bias in yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes release, there has been little cause for cheer on the greenback, with the DXY dollar index giving up its hold on the 97 level in recent trade. The US economic data we have on the cards today is relatively limited, although wholesale inventories for April could provide some fresh direction in the short term, especially if we see a foray into negative territory.
 
The pound continues to lose ground against the Euro, with major banks flagging the risk associated with potentially difficult Brexit negotiations as a factor that needs to be considered. Any attempted sell-offs here are meeting fresh bouts of buying and unless we see a marked jump in the UK GDP revision that’s due at 8.30am GMT it seems unlikely that the currency will see a meaningful reversion in its fortunes.
 
Moody’s downgraded China’s credit rating this morning but at least so far this has had no meaningful effect on the fortunes of the Aussie dollar. The currency is seen by many as a proxy for China’s fortunes given the strong trade ties between the two nations and although we could see downside pressures build here in due course for now AUD/USD is attempting to break above the 0.7500 level. There’s little economic data due for release from Australia before the weekend break so given the marking down we’re seeing for the greenback right now, further gains could be seen here.
 
Japanese CPI data is set to be released at 11.30pm GMT today and given the recent run of improvements seen for the nations struggling economy, expectations of an upbeat print here will be running high. With the dollar ion the back foot and USD/JPY sitting some way off recent highs, again there’s upside potential to be seen here, especially if we have an indication that a return to more normal monetary policies may be on the way.
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice
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25 / 05 / 2017 | Технический анализ

EUR/USD trying to breach resistance

EUR/USD is meeting with resistance around 1.1270 but a break above here would pave the way to move out to last summer’s highs around 1.1375 and 1.1440.
 

 
USD/CHF remains under pressure and after this period of consolidation, assuming the next leg is lower, then look for support at 0.9640 followed by 0.9540.
 

 
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice
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25 / 05 / 2017 | Oбщий

G7 – An Over-view of the Summit

The G7 summit is one of the largest economic forums with some of the biggest and highest grossing economies in the world participating. It is a precursor or a complementary forum of the G20. The purpose of this gathering of nations is to deliberate on topics relating to safety and quality of life of their citizens, sustainability environmental, social and economic and the development and nurturing of innovation, research, skills and labor.

The countries (or Unions) participating in the G7 Summit:

  • Canada
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • The UK
  • U.S.A.
  • EU
One of the most anticipated discussions will be the U.S. government’s intention to remain or leave the Paris accord that President Trump promised to do during his presidential campaign under the premise that doing so would increase jobs in the energy sector and specifically coal mining.
The Paris accord was an agreement entered into by 195 countries around the world with the intention to lower greenhouse gas emissions which includes completely forgoing the use and production of coal and more generally fossil fuels. China - one of the world’s largest users of coal in the world entered the agreement making environmentalists optimistic that this will create a significant decrease in carbon emissions by 2020.

No matter what is decided or discussed at the summit, you can stay on top of the market with the MT4 platform that comes with all of STO’s accounts, with institutional spreads starting from 0.0 pips.

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice
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23 / 05 / 2017 | Новости рынка

Euro still finding favour

Our prop desk is looking relatively quiet right now with the absence of economic data leaving many on the sidelines. Some profits have been booked off short USD/CAD and USD/CHF trades, although recent attempts to find gains off long EUR positions have failed to deliver.
 
Daily Round up
 
Markets are digesting the news of the Manchester terrorist attack, which occurred last night, although we’re not seeing any notable downside pressure on Sterling or indeed a move into safe havens like gold. The economic calendar is set to pick up a little following the slow start we saw to the week, although again there’s not that much on the agenda.
 

Fundamental Analysis – Euro still finding favour

 
The general theme of support for the common currency is prevailing as an improving political outlook across the Eurozone combines with the idea that the ECB will continue to wind down its easing measures in the months ahead. Notably however there’s still the French national assembly elections to come and failure for Macron’s En Marche! party to secure a majority here would have the potential to reverse this run of good fortune.
 
The UK public sector net borrowing data for May is due for release at 8.30am GMT and this could provide some fresh direction for Sterling. The last reading showed borrowing to be at its lowest level since the financial crisis although even then it was a little ahead of expectations, so will inflationary pressures take a toll on today’s reading? EUR/GBP has already been inflated in recent days to arguably it would take a big miss to drive further gains here.
 
With the Federal Reserve eager to stay one step ahead of inflationary pressures, today’s US new home sales reading will be under scrutiny. Although the economy has been faltering of late, a jump higher here will strengthen the case for policy hawks looking to make that next move. As we’ve been reminded before, the June FOMC meeting should be considered as a ‘live’ one, and with central bankers globally backing the case for less monetary easing, the greenback wouldn’t find itself at an explicit disadvantage if rates move a quarter point higher next month.
 
The Kiwi dollar has been gaining ground against its Aussie counterpart in recent days, recovering most of move posted on May 11th off the back of concerns over the New Zealand economy. Tonight’s trade balance data due at 10.45pm GMT will be worth watching as this print often has the ability to come in some considerable distance from expectations, in turn generating some volatility for the pair.
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice
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23 / 05 / 2017 | Технический анализ

EUR/USD still heading North?

EUR/USD continues to forge its way higher. Having hit yesterday’s target of 1.1250, further gains would make for a return to last August’s highs of 1.1360.
 

 
EUR/GBP is pushing higher with the next target being the 50% retracement of the Q4 ’16 sell-off, which maps onto the late March highs around 0.8720.
 

 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice
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23 / 05 / 2017 | Oбщий

AFX Group на выставке iFX Expo 2017








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Выставка iFX Expo - это захватывающее событие и потрясающая возможность для нас наладить связь в нашей отрасли и встретить единомышленников.
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22 / 05 / 2017 | Новости рынка

Greenback started week with a bounce – but will it last?

It’s been a challenging few days for our prop desk with a slew of risk-off deals – including long gold and short SPX – failing to deliver. Some modest long GBP positions are profitable but these calm markets aren’t as expected.
 
Daily Round up
 
We have a very quiet day ahead in terms of economic readings. A number of FOMC members will be speaking on an array of subjects, but unless there’s a coordinated message here this is unlikely to deliver much direction. Risk mitigation may remain in focus with the questions that are hanging over Donald Trump, but again there’s little to suggest progress here will be seen quickly.
 

Fundamental Analysis – Greenback started week with a bounce – but will it last?

 
The US dollar has kicked off the new trading week with a modicum of support. The DXY dollar index is up around 0.2% and EUR/USD has lost its grip on 1.1200 – at least for now – but it’s difficult to see this as being sustainable. Generally, other major central banks are starting to back away from the ultra-lax monetary policies that have prevailed of late, and gave the USD an edge in recent months. On top of this we still have those storm clouds gathering over Washington regarding how tenable Donald Trump’s position is. The gains we’ve seen in recent hours could simply be explained away as a modest relief rally over the that there’s been no further escalation regarding the President’s situation, but especially given the absence of any meaningful economic news, it’s difficult to see this boost for the dollar as being the start of a new trend.
 
6am GMT tomorrow sees the release of the revised Q1 German GDP readings and given the generally encouraging sounds we’re hearing from the Eurozone right now, there’s absolutely no cause for concern over this print. However this does suggest that even a modest variation from expectations could deliver a slug of volatility for the common currency.
 
RBA assistant governor Debelle is delivering a speech in Switzerland later this evening and given the relative absence of economic data that’s on hand today, this could take on added significance. The RBA is walking a proverbial tight rope as it looks to maintain economic growth against slowing demand from China and falling commodity prices, so any clues over where interest rates might go next will be closely followed. There’s a widely held belief that the next round of tightening won’t be seen for at least a year, although some policy hawks at the bank haven’t hesitated to shoot down this idea, but with global economic growth looking turgid, is this anything more than jaw-boning in a bid to control an overheating credit market?
 
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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22 / 05 / 2017 | Технический анализ

EUR/USD aiming higher?

EUR/USD is now comfortably above the 61.8% retracement of last year’s sell-off. Assuming this holds then a return to the resistance level from last September of 1.1250 would be within reach.
 

 
AUDUSD has found resistance at the 50% retracement of the rally from Q1 2017, but the pair is establishing itself in a channel-up and a return to the month’s highs close to 0.7550 would be the next target.
 

 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice
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